Correlation Between Statin Use and Symptomatic Venous Thromboembolism Incidence in Patients With Ankle Fracture: A Machine Learning Approach.

Background: Identifying factors that correlate with the incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) has the potential to improve VTE prevention and positively influence decision-making regarding prophylaxis. In this study, we aimed to investigate the correlation between statin consumption and the incidence of VTE in patients who sustained an ankle fracture.

Methods: In this retrospective, case-controlled study, cases were those who developed VTE and controls were those who had no VTE, and the ratio was 1:4. Patients' demographics, history of hyperlipidemia, and reported statins use were obtained. A random forest classifier (RFC) model was used to predict whether statin consumers were at risk of VTE after ankle fracture regardless of VTE prophylaxis administration based on statin consumption, body mass index (BMI), age, and biological sex.

Results: Of the 1175 patients with ankle fractures, 238 had confirmed VTE (case group), and 937 had no symptomatic VTE (control group; ratio 1:4). Fifty (21%) cases and 407 (43%) controls were on a statin. Statin users had a significantly lower incidence of VTE after ankle fracture, odds ratio (OR) = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.25, 0.49, P < .001. Our model showed an area under the receiving operator curve (AUROC) of 78%, a sensitivity of 73%, and a specificity of 83% in predicting the risk of VTE. The importance of the predictors of VTE, other than the use of statins (model importance = 0.1), were age (model importance of 0.72), BMI (model importance of 0.24), and biological sex (model importance of 0.02).

Conclusion: Statins were significantly associated with a lower rate of VTE in our population of patients who sustained an ankle fracture.

Levels of evidence: 3.