{"title":"可以客观地预测后年的期刊影响因子","authors":"M. Rocha-e-Silva","doi":"10.5935/MEDICALEXPRESS.2016.05.06","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"OBJECTIVE: To determine whether trends of Journal Impact factor variation can be objectively predicted for the year after next. METHOD: Curves for citations/document have been constructed for articles published in the two years previous to the current year (YEAR-1 and YEAR-2) and their citations in the current (unfinished year). Separate curves were constructed for YEAR-1 and YEAR-2. A parameter named INDEX R has been defined. INDEX R was calculated for a randomly selected sample of 100 journals with Impact Factors in the 1 - 3 range. RESULTS: INDEX R was found to distribute in a quasi-normal manner, with a borderline adherence to the Gauss distribution (0.10 > p > 0.05). A mean value of 0.60 ± 0.19 was observed. CONCLUSION: As a working hypothesis, it is suggested that INDEX R may indicate a trend for the Impact Factor to occur for the year-after (2017), to be published in the summer of 2018.","PeriodicalId":31471,"journal":{"name":"Medical Express","volume":"3 1","pages":"1-4"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2016-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"4","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted\",\"authors\":\"M. Rocha-e-Silva\",\"doi\":\"10.5935/MEDICALEXPRESS.2016.05.06\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"OBJECTIVE: To determine whether trends of Journal Impact factor variation can be objectively predicted for the year after next. METHOD: Curves for citations/document have been constructed for articles published in the two years previous to the current year (YEAR-1 and YEAR-2) and their citations in the current (unfinished year). Separate curves were constructed for YEAR-1 and YEAR-2. A parameter named INDEX R has been defined. INDEX R was calculated for a randomly selected sample of 100 journals with Impact Factors in the 1 - 3 range. RESULTS: INDEX R was found to distribute in a quasi-normal manner, with a borderline adherence to the Gauss distribution (0.10 > p > 0.05). A mean value of 0.60 ± 0.19 was observed. CONCLUSION: As a working hypothesis, it is suggested that INDEX R may indicate a trend for the Impact Factor to occur for the year-after (2017), to be published in the summer of 2018.\",\"PeriodicalId\":31471,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Medical Express\",\"volume\":\"3 1\",\"pages\":\"1-4\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2016-10-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"4\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Medical Express\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.5935/MEDICALEXPRESS.2016.05.06\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Medical Express","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5935/MEDICALEXPRESS.2016.05.06","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted
OBJECTIVE: To determine whether trends of Journal Impact factor variation can be objectively predicted for the year after next. METHOD: Curves for citations/document have been constructed for articles published in the two years previous to the current year (YEAR-1 and YEAR-2) and their citations in the current (unfinished year). Separate curves were constructed for YEAR-1 and YEAR-2. A parameter named INDEX R has been defined. INDEX R was calculated for a randomly selected sample of 100 journals with Impact Factors in the 1 - 3 range. RESULTS: INDEX R was found to distribute in a quasi-normal manner, with a borderline adherence to the Gauss distribution (0.10 > p > 0.05). A mean value of 0.60 ± 0.19 was observed. CONCLUSION: As a working hypothesis, it is suggested that INDEX R may indicate a trend for the Impact Factor to occur for the year-after (2017), to be published in the summer of 2018.
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