小型开放经济中的货币贬值与竞争力爱尔兰1987 - 1993

IF 0.2 4区经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS

Economic and Social Review Pub Date : 1993-11-01 DOI:10.5089/9781451954678.001

Leonardo Bartolini

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引用次数: 19

摘要

本文研究了1987年至1993年爱尔兰镑贬值的市场预期，并将其与同期爱尔兰竞争力的演变联系起来。对爱尔兰货币贬值预期的波动，在很大程度上可以用爱尔兰以外的事态发展来解释，尤其是英镑过去和未来的走势。据估计，1993年1月爱尔兰镑的贬值超过了投资者重新调整的预期，也超过了欧洲汇率机制危机开始以来爱尔兰竞争力的丧失。这种“过度贬值”有助于解释随后的大量资本流入和英镑在1993年8月顺利过渡到较宽的汇率机制波段。

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Devaluation and Competitiveness in a Small Open Economy; Ireland 1987-1993

This paper studies market expectations of a devaluation of the Irish pound from 1987 to 1993, and relates them to the evolution of Ireland's competitiveness over the same period. Much of the volatility of expectations of the currency's devaluation can be explained by developments outside Ireland, particularly by past and anticipated movements of sterling. The devaluation of the Irish pound in January 1993 is estimated to have exceeded investors' realignment expectations as well as the loss of Irish competitiveness since the beginning of the ERM crisis. This "excess devaluation" helps to explain subsequent large capital inflows and the pound's smooth transition to the wide ERM band in August 1993.

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来源期刊

Economic and Social Review Multiple-

CiteScore

1.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Economic and Social Review is Ireland''s leading journal for economics and applied social science. The Journal is published four times a year. The ESR invites high quality submissions in economics, sociology, and cognate disciplines on topics of relevance to Ireland. Contributions based on original empirical research and employing a comparative international approach are particularly encouraged. The ESR incorporates a policy section that contains applied articles addressing important questions relating to economic and social policy. While these articles do not necessarily have to contain new academic research results, they are subject to the same refereeing process as our academic articles. Suggestions to the Editor for specially themed policy sections are welcome.