极端降雨条件下的城市洪水模型用于建筑物洪水暴露分析

IF 3.1 Q2 WATER RESOURCES

Hydrology Pub Date : 2023-08-17 DOI:10.3390/hydrology10080172

Christos Iliadis, P. Galiatsatou, V. Glenis, P. Prinos, C. Kilsby

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引用次数: 2

摘要

城市地区的扩大以及强降雨事件的频率和强度的增加预计将导致全球城市洪水风险的广泛升级。为了有效地减轻未来的洪水风险，将城市地区强降雨事件的综合检查与详细水动力模型的利用结合起来是至关重要的。这项研究结合了极端值分析技术，应用于从每小时到每天持续时间的降雨数据，并在希腊塞萨洛尼基中心的建筑水平进行了高分辨率的洪水建模分析。通过将广义极值(GEV)分布应用于年最大精细时间尺度数据来评估降雨回归水平，采用标度程序，然后将这些标度规律应用于通过广义帕累托分布(GPD)估计的更可靠的日降雨回归水平，以开发持续时间为1小时和2小时的风暴剖面。然后使用先进的洪水模型CityCAT来模拟雨洪。提供建筑物暴露于洪水危险的可靠评估。所进行的分析结果提供了对塞萨洛尼基市中心洪水深度和水流路径的见解，确定了导致局部洪水的某些主要街道上的主要水流路径，并确定了研究区域内大约165和186座建筑物高度暴露于50年一次的风暴事件中，持续时间分别为1小时和2小时。该研究区域首次将极端降雨事件的详细分析与高分辨率数字地形模型(DTM)相结合，作为先进且功能齐全的CityCAT水动力模型的输入，以评估高洪水风险的关键流道和建筑物。这项研究的结果可以帮助规划和设计抵御城市山洪暴发的弹性解决方案，并有助于有针对性地减轻洪水损害和降低洪水风险。

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Urban Flood Modelling under Extreme Rainfall Conditions for Building-Level Flood Exposure Analysis

The expansion of urban areas and the increasing frequency and magnitude of intense rainfall events are anticipated to contribute to the widespread escalation of urban flood risk across the globe. To effectively mitigate future flood risks, it is crucial to combine a comprehensive examination of intense rainfall events in urban areas with the utilization of detailed hydrodynamic models. This study combines extreme value analysis techniques applied to rainfall data ranging from sub-hourly to daily durations with a high-resolution flood modelling analysis at the building level in the centre of Thessaloniki, Greece. A scaling procedure is employed to rainfall return levels assessed by applying the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to annual maximum fine-temporal-scale data, and these scaling laws are then applied to more reliable daily rainfall return levels estimated by means of the generalised Pareto distribution (GPD), in order to develop storm profiles with durations of 1 h and 2 h. The advanced flood model, CityCAT, is then used for the simulation of pluvial flooding, providing reliable assessments of building-level exposure to flooding hazards. The results of the analysis conducted provide insights into flood depths and water flowpaths in the city centre of Thessaloniki, identifying major flowpaths along certain main streets resulting in localised flooding, and identifying around 165 and 186 buildings highly exposed to inundation risk in the study area for 50-year storm events with durations of 1 h and 2 h, respectively. For the first time in this study area, a detailed analysis of extreme rainfall events is combined with a high-resolution Digital Terrain Model (DTM), used as an input into the advanced and fully featured CityCAT hydrodynamic model, to assess critical flowpaths and buildings at high flood risk. The results of this study can aid in the planning and design of resilient solutions to combat urban flash floods, as well as contribute to targeted flood damage mitigation and flood risk reduction.

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来源期刊

Hydrology Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth-Surface Processes

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

21.90%

发文量

192

审稿时长

6 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology publishes original research papers and comprehensive reviews in all the subfields of the hydrological sciences, including water based management and policy issues that impact on economics and society. These comprise, but are not limited to the physical, chemical, biogeochemical, stochastic and systems aspects of surface and groundwater hydrology, hydrometeorology, hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics. Relevant topics incorporating the insights and methodologies of disciplines such as climatology, water resource systems, ecohydrology, geomorphology, soil science, instrumentation and remote sensing, data and information sciences, civil and environmental engineering are within scope. Social science perspectives on hydrological problems such as resource and ecological economics, sociology, psychology and behavioural science, management and policy analysis are also invited. Multi-and interdisciplinary analyses of hydrological problems are within scope. The science published in the Journal of Hydrology is relevant to catchment scales rather than exclusively to a local scale or site. Studies focused on urban hydrological issues are included.