HOW FAST WILL THE TOURIST DEMAND RECOVERY BE IN THE CONTEXT OF COVID-19 IN MEXICO?

Tourism is experiencing the worst crisis currently, with a fall of 73% in international arrivals worldwide. After the lockdown, it is time to analyze the recovery, but econometrics models that need historical data are obsolete. This study contributes with a survival model analysis to estimate the recovery of tourist demand amid the COVID-19 crisis. The model estimates the effect of two kinds of determinants that improve tourists’ confidence: theoretical and empirical, linked to the pandemic. Results show that prices are not statistically significant and the higher the income, the higher the probability of traveling. Job retention, promotions, ensuring the certification of health protocols, lower distance from residence to tourist destination, and social distancing will be the main driving factors for the next months. Affected salaries, new COVID-19 outbreaks, longer time to adapt to safety and hygiene protocols, and health check procedures in airports will be important determinants that will have a negative influence. Tourist demand recovery will mainly be boosted by short distances between tourists’ residences and destinations. Mexico has a latent tourist demand that will recover relatively fast.