{"title":"被认为有自动化风险的特定职业的增长趋势","authors":"M. Handel","doi":"10.21916/mlr.2022.21","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics have led to substantial concern that large-scale job losses are imminent. Selected occupations are often cited as illustrations of technological displacement that is or will become a more general problem, but these discussions are often impressionistic. This article compiles a list of specific occupations cited in the automation literature and examines the occupations’ employment trends since 1999 and projected employment to 2029. There is little support in U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data or projections for the idea of a general acceleration of job loss or a structural break with trends pre-dating the AI revolution with respect to the occupations cited as examples. Offsetting factors and other limitations of the automation thesis are discussed.","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"6","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Growth trends for selected occupations considered at risk from automation\",\"authors\":\"M. Handel\",\"doi\":\"10.21916/mlr.2022.21\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics have led to substantial concern that large-scale job losses are imminent. Selected occupations are often cited as illustrations of technological displacement that is or will become a more general problem, but these discussions are often impressionistic. This article compiles a list of specific occupations cited in the automation literature and examines the occupations’ employment trends since 1999 and projected employment to 2029. There is little support in U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data or projections for the idea of a general acceleration of job loss or a structural break with trends pre-dating the AI revolution with respect to the occupations cited as examples. Offsetting factors and other limitations of the automation thesis are discussed.\",\"PeriodicalId\":47215,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Monthly Labor Review\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-07-11\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"6\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Monthly Labor Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2022.21\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS & LABOR\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Monthly Labor Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2022.21","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS & LABOR","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
摘要
人工智能(AI)和机器人技术的突破引发了人们对大规模失业迫在眉睫的担忧。某些职业经常被引用为技术取代的例证，这是或将成为一个更普遍的问题，但这些讨论往往是印象主义的。本文编制了自动化文献中引用的特定职业列表，并研究了自1999年以来这些职业的就业趋势以及到2029年的预计就业情况。美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的数据或预测几乎没有支持以下观点:失业普遍加速，或与人工智能革命之前的趋势出现结构性突破。讨论了自动化论文的抵消因素和其他限制。
Growth trends for selected occupations considered at risk from automation
Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics have led to substantial concern that large-scale job losses are imminent. Selected occupations are often cited as illustrations of technological displacement that is or will become a more general problem, but these discussions are often impressionistic. This article compiles a list of specific occupations cited in the automation literature and examines the occupations’ employment trends since 1999 and projected employment to 2029. There is little support in U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data or projections for the idea of a general acceleration of job loss or a structural break with trends pre-dating the AI revolution with respect to the occupations cited as examples. Offsetting factors and other limitations of the automation thesis are discussed.
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