粮食和营养安全(SAN)是否受到生物燃料生产的限制?基于ZOCKUN模型的分析

Rita Inês Paetzhold Pauli, Bruna Tadielo Zajonz, J. Schulz, C. Freitas
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文讨论了1996年至2016年生物燃料生产对粮食生产和巴西粮食和营养安全(FNS)的影响。基于Zockun模型的分析,评估了规模效应和替代效应。研究结果表明,生产生物燃料,特别是乙醇,不会威胁到用于消费的甘蔗的生产,同样,生产生物柴油也不会损害植物油和动物脂肪的生产。在评价甘蔗与乙醇、大豆与生物柴油的关系时,两种作物呈现出显著的规模效应,即种植面积显著增加。结论是,Zockun模型对本研究的分析存在局限性,尽管结果允许对生产再转换的变化进行一般指示。粮食和营养安全,考虑到其数量和粮食多样化、质量和可及性方面,可能会受到FNS概念框架的限制。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A SEGURANÇA ALIMENTAR E NUTRICIONAL (SAN) VEM SOFRENDO RESTRIÇÕES PELA PRODUÇÃO DE BIOCOMBUSTÍVEIS? UMA ANÁLISE A PARTIR DO MODELO DE ZOCKUN
This paper discusses the impacts of biofuel production on food production and on Brazilian food and nutritional security (FNS) from 1996 to 2016. An analysis based on the Zockun model, which evaluates the effects of scale and replacement. The results show that the production of biofuels, specifically ethanol, does not threaten the production of sugarcane for consumption and, similarly, the production of biodiesel does not compromise the production of vegetable oils and animal fats. When evaluating the relationship between sugarcane and ethanol, and soybean with biodiesel, the two crops are showing a significant scale effect, meaning that there is a significant increase in cultivated areas. It is concluded that there are limits in the Zockun model for the analysis of this research, although the results allow a general indication of the changes of productive reconversion. Food and nutritional security, considering its quantitative and food diversification, qualitative and accessibility aspects, may be constrained in the light of the conceptual framework of the FNS.
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