Epidemiological features of respiratory diseases in children and adolescents before the pandemic of new coronavirus infection in Udmurtia

Objective. To study the epidemiological features of respiratory diseases in children and adolescents before the COVID-19 pandemic in Udmurtia. Materials and methods. Epidemiological parameters of respiratory diseases in children and adolescents in Udmurtia (prevalence, morbidity, mortality, disability) in the period before COVID-19 pandemic from 2010 to 2019 according to the reporting forms of federal statistical observation No. 12, 14, 19. The polynomial regression was used for the prognosis of the level of prevalence and incidence of respiratory diseases in children by 2024. Results. The prevalence of respiratory diseases in the region decreased significantly between 2010 and 2019 (p < 0.05): aged 0–14 years from 1642.4 (95% CI 1638.3–1646.5) to 1452.1 (95% CI 1449.1–1455.1), aged 15–17 years, from 925.7 (95% CI 924.7–926.8) to 871.8 (95% CI 870.5–873.0) per 1000 children of relevant age. The prognosed prevalence rate by 2024 was 1,080.7 per 1,000 children aged 0–14 (R2 = 0.95) and 874.7 (R2 = 0.34) per 1,000 adolescents aged 15–17. A decrease of ARVI (p < 0.05) was registered at the age of 0–14 years with an average annual rate of decline of 1.2%.The incidence of pneumonia increased (p < 0.05) indicators: aged 0–14 years – from 10.6 (95% CI 10.1–11.0) to 14.7 (95% CI 14.2–15.2) per 1000 children, 15–17 years from 2.4 (95% CI 2.2–2.6) to 7.1 (95% CI 6.8–7.4) in 1000 population. The prognosed incidence of pneumonia by 2024 in children 0–14 years old was 21.3 (R2 = 0.60), in adolescents – 10.1 in 1000 population of appropriate age (R2 = 0.62). Conclusion. There is a significant trend in reducing the prevalence and morbidity of respiratory diseases in children over the past decade before the pandemic of a new coronavirus infection in Udmurtia. Keywords: prevalence, respiratory diseases, pneumonia, COVID-19