气候对货币政策经济变量影响的评估:区域方法

IF 0.4 Q3 AREA STUDIES
S. Arzhenovskiy, T. Sinyavskaya, Vardan M. Nikogosyan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

介绍。根据俄罗斯在区域方面的数据对气候变量对货币政策宏观经济指标的影响进行定量分析的相关性是由于缺乏这类研究。本文的目的是对俄罗斯地区面板数据上的气候变化对货币政策关键宏观经济变量的影响进行定量评估。材料与方法。俄罗斯各地区是这项研究的对象。为了进行计算,作者根据俄罗斯国家统计局的数据,建立了2000年至2020年俄罗斯联邦79个地区的信息库。应用的方法是基于作者的方法,结合使用固定年份的区域因子分析和使用前一阶段在区域面板数据上获得的积分因子的计量经济模型。计量经济分析采用广义矩法和两阶段系统广义矩法进行。气候变化对在制定和执行货币政策措施时控制的主要宏观经济变量- -区域生产总值和消费者价格指数- -的重大影响已由经验确定。该研究基于计量经济模型。讨论与结论。俄罗斯地区发生的客观气候变化可能对经济状况产生不利影响,这需要加强实施和制定旨在改善环境状况的措施:减少二氧化碳排放,开发和利用森林节约技术等。建议在实施货币政策时考虑气候形势。研究结果将有助于制定和执行区域政策,并为计划长期改善俄罗斯经济空间的领土结构的专家和公务员提供帮助。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessment of the Climate Impact on the Economic Variables of Monetary Policy: Regional Approach
Introduction. The relevance of quantitative analysis of the impact of climate variables on macroeconomic indicators of monetary policy according to Russian data in the regional aspect is due to the absence of such research. The purpose of the article is to perform a quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on key macroeconomic variables of monetary policy on panel data by Russian regions. Materials and Methods. Russian regions were the subject of the study. For calculations, the authors have formed the information base for 79 regions of the Russian Federation from 2000 to 2020 according to Rosstat. The applied methodology is based on the author’s approach, combining the use of factor analysis by region at fixed year and econometric modeling using integral factors obtained at the previous stage on the panel data by region. Econometric analysis was performed using a generalized method of moments and a two-stage systematic generalized method of moments. Results. The significant impact of climate change on key macroeconomic variables controlled in the development and implementation of monetary policy measures – gross regional product and consumer price index – has been identified empirically. The research was based on econometric modeling. Discussion and Conclusion. Objective climate change taking place in the Russian regions may adversely affect the economic situation, which requires intensification of implementation and development of measures aimed at improving the environmental situation: reduction of CO2 emissions, development and use of forest-saving technologies, etc. It is proposed to consider the climate situation in the implementation of monetary policy. The results of the research will be useful both in the development and implementation of regional policy, and for specialists, civil servants who plan to improve the territorial structure of the economic space of Russia in the long term.
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