A Prediction Model for Incident Resolution

ABSTRACT The police have traditionally used a motivational model to identify and predict the behavior of hostage-takers or barricaded persons. However, motive has been found to be a poor predictor of incident resolution. This essay presents a contextual model that offers greater potential for predicting the outcome of these situations. The components of this model are explained and a brief overview of the statistical analysis of the variables is given. Two case studies are examined to show how three independent variables (context, containment and conversation) can be used to predict the incident resolution with greater accuracy.