预测误差对财政规划和债务积累的影响

IF 1.1 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik Pub Date : 2022-02-22 DOI:10.1515/jbnst-2020-0054

Marten Ademmer, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe

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引用次数: 3

摘要

摘要本文研究中期税收预测误差对最终预算平衡的影响。我们的分析基于整个德国各州的财政数据，并利用了预算编制过程中可能被视为外生因素的收入预测和各自的误差。我们发现，在不同预测范围内的预测误差在很大程度上转化为最终的预算平衡，这表明，当收入预测得到修正时，支出计划只会得到轻微的调整。因此，税收预测的错误可能会严重影响公共债务的积累。我们的计算表明，德国各州债务总额的很大一部分源于过于乐观的预测。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The Impact of Forecast Errors on Fiscal Planning and Debt Accumulation

Abstract We investigate the impact of errors in medium run tax revenue forecasts on the final budget balance. Our analysis is based on fiscal data for the entirety of German states and takes advantage of revenue forecasts and respective errors that can be considered as exogenously given in the budgeting process. We find that forecast errors at various forecast horizons translate considerably into the final budget balance, indicating that expenditure plans get only marginally adjusted when revenue forecasts get revised. Consequently, errors in tax revenue forecasts may considerably affect the accumulation of public debt. Our calculations suggest that a significant share of total debt of German states results from forecasts that were too optimistic.

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来源期刊

Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik Multiple-

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

23.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： Die Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik existieren seit dem Jahr 1863. Die Herausgeber fühlen sich der Tradition verpflichtet, die Zeitschrift für kritische, innovative und entwicklungsträchtige Beiträge offen zu halten. Weder thematisch noch methodisch sollen die Veröffentlichungen auf jeweils herrschende Lehrmeinungen eingeengt werden.