Abstracts of Selected Papers

s of Selected Papers Recreation and Forestry (Chair: Tom Grigalunas, Univ. of Rhode Island) "Valuing Whitewater Rafting on the Gauley River: A Trip Response to Individual Travel Cost" D.B.K. English, J.M. Bowker (USDA/FS), and J.A. Donovan (Univ. of Georgia) Estimating consumer surplus via individual travel cost models for recreation resources that most people visit only a few times per year can be problematic. This paper presents a trip response (intended behavior) alternative to using a zonal model. Changes in the annual number of outfitted river trips are modeled as a function of contingent changes in outfitter fees under a Poisson distribution. Results show that visitors are more likely to change the number of trips if faced with a price increase than with a price decrease. Per trip consumer surplus estimates range from $12.80 to $31.75. "The Role of Expectations and Heterogeneous Preferences for Congestion in the Valuation of Recreation Benefits" J.A. Michael and S.D. Reiling (Univ, of Maine) This paper improves upon previous contingent valuation studies of recreation benefits by relaxing the assumption of homogeneous preferences and accounting for the effect of pre-trip expectations for congestion. To test these hypothesis, a dichotomous choice contingent valuation model is estimated for day hikers in Maine's Caribou-Speckled Mountain Wilderness. The results show pre-trip expectations of congestion to have a stronger impact on willingness to pay the actual level of congestion, and that the willingness to pay of nonpeak visitors are much more sensitive to congestion than peak season visitors. "Modeling the Demand for On-Site Time: New Theoretical Avenues for Addressing Recreational Behavior and Welfare" R.J. Johnston (Univ. of Rhode Island) Most recreation demand models make the implicit assumption that recreational behavior is adequately characterized by the observed number of trips to a site. These models cannot address situations in which exogenous changes do not influence the frequency of trips, or in which the number of trips is a poor measure of recreational quantity. In such cases, observed changes in on-site time may provide a better measure of recreational behavior and demand. This paper explores theoretical models that derive welfare-significant demand functions for on-site time. Two models are presented: a oneconstraint model that derives standard welfare measures, and a two-constraint model that measures price, demand, and welfare entirely in time units. "A Hedonic Property Value Study of Water Quality in Maine's Lakes" H.L. James and K.J. Boyle (Univ. of Maine) This paper explores ways of modeling lake water quality in a hedonic-price equation using water clarity measurements. Four models of the water clarity measurement were used in the hedonic model. Although all of the water clarity variables were significant they showed very different marginal effects on property price. The marginal effect of water clarity measures varied between variables up to $16,000. These results indicate that empirical investigators should use caution when choosing readily available environmental quality variables in a hedonic equation, because the choice and measurement of the variable can effect benefit-cost analysis calculations and policy recommendations. 156 October 1995 Agricultural and Resource Economics Review "A Comparison of Structural Quasi-Structural, and Reduced Form Estimation of the Timber Harvest Decision" B. Provencher (Univ, of Wisconsin) This paper examines various estimable models of the timber harvest decision. Results demonstrate the need for caution in applying reduced form estimation techniques (typically logit and probit estimation) to data generated by a dynamic decision process. Changing Input Usage in Agriculture (Chair: Bob Yonkers, Penn State Univ.) "The Environment and Economic Impact of IPM Adoption: A Preliminary Analysis" J. Fernandez-Cornejo (USDAIERS) This paper calculates the impact of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) on pesticide use, yields, product quality, and revenues for fresh tomato producers in eight states accounting for most of the U.S. production. The methodology used accounts for self-selectivity and simultaneity by expanding Heckman's two step method. Our preliminary resultssupport the notion that among tomato growers IPM adopters apply significantly. less insecticides than non adopters. Others advantages of IPM adoption appear to be increased yield and revenues and reduced variance of yields and revenues. A disadvantage appears to be the reduced product quality. Ongoing research will provide final conclusions. "Pesticides, Farm Programs, and EPA's Special Review Process: Distinguishing Regional Impacts of a Pesticide Cancellation" P. Szmedra (USDAIERS) Federal regulatory actions against pesticide products used in agriculture aim to protect the public domain from unmitigated risk to human health and/or environmental degradation. These actions often have differing economic impacts on farmers withina particular region depending upon whether they are users of the pesticide in question. Interregional impacts can often times be significant as well. This paper reports the regional impacts of a possible regulatory action against the use of 2,4-D and the phenoxy class of herbicides in row crop production using partial budgeting and simulation analysis. Results indicate that farmers in the Southeast, Delta, and Appalachian regions using phenoxys and participating in farm programs would experience significant declines in per acre returns in the production of com, sorghum, oats, and peanut as a result of decreasing yield and the increased cost of alternative weed control methods and materials. "Estimation of Technical Change Biases with Non-Stationary Data" J .S. Clark (Nova Scotia Agrl, College) and K.K. Klein (Univ. of Lethbridge) Estimation of microeconomic relationships under the assumption that data are integrated processes is a neglected area of applied econometric research. This paper applies cointegration estimation of the derived demand for inputs. Given the assumption that time series data used to estimate input demands are integrated processes, testing for technical change biases using a time trend to measure technical change is equivalent to testing for nondeterministic cointegration. Conditional factor demands estimated using seemingly unrelated canonical cointegrating regression finds no technical change biases for central Canadian agriculture. "Seed Value and the Plant Variety Protection Act" M. Ollinger and M. Gill (USDA/ERS) This paper examines the impact of the Plant Variety Protection Act seed values. The major result is that the Plant Variety Protection Act has a positive but modest effect on seed values and fanner seed purchases. Results also suggest that relative crop value growth, the ease with which yield gains are achieved positively affect seed values.