The one-year prospective prediction of substance abuse and dependence among high-risk adolescents

The present study examined 1-year prospective predictors of self-reported substance abuse and dependence among a sample of 702 youths at high risk for drug abuse from 21 southern California continuation high schools. Triadic influence theory was used as a theoretical guide. Predictors were selected as measures of triadic influence theory. Among 13 predictors, a drug use and intention index, and concern that one is or will become an addict or alcoholic, were consistently predictive of self-reported substance abuse or substance dependence 1 year later, controlling for baseline abuse or dependence status. In addition, baseline substance abuse, White ethnicity, and relatively poor prosocial coping predicted later substance dependence. Apparently, adolescents can predict their future use, and abuse or dependence status. Also, instruction in prosocial coping (e.g., seeking social support) may help inhibit the transition from substance abuse to substance dependence.