The impact of new medical schools and the issues of increasing enrollment

Is there an impending physician surplus? The authors' position is that there is an impending surplus. Health planners must be cognizant of this eventuality. The federal government as one of the major authors of health policy guidelines is currently reacting to the surplus question. But federal reaction can at times be too swift, too dramatic, and not in the best interests of those who must maintain previous investments. Therefore, both the supporters of health-related educational institutions and those who are responsible for program implementation must attempt to define and reach a common understanding of the situation. Policy development and planning activities must be collaborative efforts that emphasize involvement.

In this paper, the authors present a brief review of federal policies relative to the production of physicians and other health professionals. It is hoped that one can better understand the current situation and more effectively plan the future if past developments are included. This should lead to a comprehensive analysis from a common perspective. The involvement of the Carnegie Commission (Carnegie Council) is also included for the same reasons.

All analyses lead to the current situation and the authors' position that there is an impending physician surplus. The central problem has shifted from physician supply to the problem of physician maldistribution, both geographically and by specialty.