{"title":"顺序约束下简单阶跃应力加速寿命试验的贝叶斯推断","authors":"Crystal Wiedner , David Han","doi":"10.1016/j.promfg.2021.10.021","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this work, we investigate the order-restricted Bayesian estimation for a simple step-stress accelerated life tests. Based on the three-parameter gamma distribution as a conditional prior, we ensure that the failure rates increase as the stress level increases. In addition, its conjugate-like structure enables us to derive the exact joint posterior distribution of the parameters without a need to perform an expensive MCMC sampling. Upon these distributional results, several Bayesian estimators for the model parameters are suggested along with their individual/joint credible intervals. Through Monte Carlo simulations, the performance of our proposed inferential methods are assessed and compared. Finally, a real engineering case study for analyzing the reliability of a solar lighting device is presented to illustrate the methods developed in this work.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":91947,"journal":{"name":"Procedia manufacturing","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351978921002183/pdf?md5=e3f66b03ad69103b34c3171de3595054&pid=1-s2.0-S2351978921002183-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Bayesian inference for the simple step-stress accelerated life tests under order-restriction\",\"authors\":\"Crystal Wiedner , David Han\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.promfg.2021.10.021\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>In this work, we investigate the order-restricted Bayesian estimation for a simple step-stress accelerated life tests. Based on the three-parameter gamma distribution as a conditional prior, we ensure that the failure rates increase as the stress level increases. In addition, its conjugate-like structure enables us to derive the exact joint posterior distribution of the parameters without a need to perform an expensive MCMC sampling. Upon these distributional results, several Bayesian estimators for the model parameters are suggested along with their individual/joint credible intervals. Through Monte Carlo simulations, the performance of our proposed inferential methods are assessed and compared. Finally, a real engineering case study for analyzing the reliability of a solar lighting device is presented to illustrate the methods developed in this work.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":91947,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Procedia manufacturing\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351978921002183/pdf?md5=e3f66b03ad69103b34c3171de3595054&pid=1-s2.0-S2351978921002183-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Procedia manufacturing\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351978921002183\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Procedia manufacturing","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351978921002183","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Bayesian inference for the simple step-stress accelerated life tests under order-restriction
In this work, we investigate the order-restricted Bayesian estimation for a simple step-stress accelerated life tests. Based on the three-parameter gamma distribution as a conditional prior, we ensure that the failure rates increase as the stress level increases. In addition, its conjugate-like structure enables us to derive the exact joint posterior distribution of the parameters without a need to perform an expensive MCMC sampling. Upon these distributional results, several Bayesian estimators for the model parameters are suggested along with their individual/joint credible intervals. Through Monte Carlo simulations, the performance of our proposed inferential methods are assessed and compared. Finally, a real engineering case study for analyzing the reliability of a solar lighting device is presented to illustrate the methods developed in this work.