全球货运引力模型:机场对预测很重要。

IF 1.5 Q2 ECONOMICS
Fabian Baier, Peter Berster, Marc Gelhausen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

航空业预测模型的可靠性同样是行业和政策制定者的一个重要因素。扩大机场和机队通常是一个成本和时间密集的过程,为了保持有效的市场行为,试图准确预测未来的需求和结构变化。我们提出了一种新的定量方法,利用全球机场二元ICAO CASS数据在一般线性化机场固定效应重力模型中进行航空货运预测。虽然我们的时不变常数模型的强大解释力在预测文献中发现的各种较小的指标方面存在自然困难,但我们对选定的时变变量(如人均国内生产总值或煤油价格)取得了非常好的结果。这使得我们的模型成为预测模拟的完美工具:外推IHS Markit提供的一般经济预测数据,结果与波音货运预测(2020年)相似,从长远来看略有下降。此外,由于机场固定效应,我们不需要在区域组中分割或控制样本,这使得该模型另一方面也适用于国家和机场水平的预测。利用大型独特的双边货运数据集也有助于回答航空中的经典重力模型问题:我们将距离效应跟踪到样本选择问题,发现在最先进的重力计量经济学之后没有显著的相互作用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Global cargo gravitation model: airports matter for forecasts.

The reliability of forecast models in the aviation sector is an important factor for industry and policy makers likewise. Expanding airports and fleets usually is a cost and time intensive process, and in order to maintain efficient market behavior, accurate anticipation of future demand and structural changes is attempted. We present a new quantitative approach to air cargo forecasts utilizing global airport-dyadic ICAO CASS data in general linearized airport fixed effects gravity models. While the strong explanatory power of our time invariant constant model has its natural difficulties predicting a variety of smaller indicators from previous models found in literature, we achieve very good results for selected time variant variables as gross domestic product per capita or kerosene prices. This makes our model a perfect tool for forecast simulations: extrapolating general economic forecast data provided by IHS Markit yield similar results to Boeing cargo forecasts (2020), with a slight decrease in the long run. Additionally, we do not need to split or control our sample in regional groups due to airport fixed effects, which makes the model on the other hand suitable for country- and airport level forecasts as well. The utilization of a large unique bilateral freight data set also helps answering classical gravity model questions in aviation: we track the distance effect to a matter of sample selection, finding no significant interaction following state of the art gravity econometrics.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: The double-blind peer reviewed Journal International Economics and Economic Policy publishes empirical and theoretical contributions, especially papers which are relevant for economic policy. The main focus of the journal is on comparative economic policy, international political economy, including international organizations and policy cooperation, monetary and real/technological dynamics in open economies, globalization and regional integration, trade, migration, international investment, internet commerce and regulation.IEEP particularly offers contributions from the policy community and provides a forum for exchange for the academic and policy community. Officially cited as: Int Econ Econ Policy
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