{"title":"回归理论、阿雷悖论与萨维奇煎蛋","authors":"V.G. Bardakhchyan, A.E. Allahverdyan","doi":"10.1016/j.jmp.2023.102807","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study a sufficiently general regret criterion for choosing between two probabilistic lotteries. For independent lotteries, the criterion is consistent with stochastic dominance and can be made transitive by a unique choice of the regret function. Together with additional (and intuitively meaningful) super-additivity property, the regret criterion resolves the Allais’ paradox including the cases were the paradox disappears, and the choices agree with the expected utility. This super-additivity property is also employed for establishing consistency between regret and stochastic dominance for dependent lotteries. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the regret criterion can be used in Savage’s omelet, a classical decision problem in which the lottery outcomes are not fully resolved. The expected utility cannot be used in such situations, as it discards important aspects of lotteries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50140,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Psychology","volume":"117 ","pages":"Article 102807"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Regret theory, Allais’ paradox, and Savage’s omelet\",\"authors\":\"V.G. Bardakhchyan, A.E. Allahverdyan\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jmp.2023.102807\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>We study a sufficiently general regret criterion for choosing between two probabilistic lotteries. For independent lotteries, the criterion is consistent with stochastic dominance and can be made transitive by a unique choice of the regret function. Together with additional (and intuitively meaningful) super-additivity property, the regret criterion resolves the Allais’ paradox including the cases were the paradox disappears, and the choices agree with the expected utility. This super-additivity property is also employed for establishing consistency between regret and stochastic dominance for dependent lotteries. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the regret criterion can be used in Savage’s omelet, a classical decision problem in which the lottery outcomes are not fully resolved. The expected utility cannot be used in such situations, as it discards important aspects of lotteries.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50140,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Mathematical Psychology\",\"volume\":\"117 \",\"pages\":\"Article 102807\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-09-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Mathematical Psychology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"102\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022249623000639\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"心理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Mathematical Psychology","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022249623000639","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Regret theory, Allais’ paradox, and Savage’s omelet
We study a sufficiently general regret criterion for choosing between two probabilistic lotteries. For independent lotteries, the criterion is consistent with stochastic dominance and can be made transitive by a unique choice of the regret function. Together with additional (and intuitively meaningful) super-additivity property, the regret criterion resolves the Allais’ paradox including the cases were the paradox disappears, and the choices agree with the expected utility. This super-additivity property is also employed for establishing consistency between regret and stochastic dominance for dependent lotteries. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the regret criterion can be used in Savage’s omelet, a classical decision problem in which the lottery outcomes are not fully resolved. The expected utility cannot be used in such situations, as it discards important aspects of lotteries.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Mathematical Psychology includes articles, monographs and reviews, notes and commentaries, and book reviews in all areas of mathematical psychology. Empirical and theoretical contributions are equally welcome.
Areas of special interest include, but are not limited to, fundamental measurement and psychological process models, such as those based upon neural network or information processing concepts. A partial listing of substantive areas covered include sensation and perception, psychophysics, learning and memory, problem solving, judgment and decision-making, and motivation.
The Journal of Mathematical Psychology is affiliated with the Society for Mathematical Psychology.
Research Areas include:
• Models for sensation and perception, learning, memory and thinking
• Fundamental measurement and scaling
• Decision making
• Neural modeling and networks
• Psychophysics and signal detection
• Neuropsychological theories
• Psycholinguistics
• Motivational dynamics
• Animal behavior
• Psychometric theory