大流行抑制经济，公共卫生干预不会:来自1918年流感的证据

IF 2.5 1区历史学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic History Pub Date : 2022-12-02 DOI:10.1017/s0022050722000407

Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, Emil Verner

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引用次数: 444

摘要

我们研究了1918年流感大流行期间非药物干预措施(npi)对美国各城市死亡率和经济活动的影响。快速和严格的国家行动计划相结合，可将峰值死亡率降低50%，累计超额死亡率降低24%至34%。然而，虽然大流行本身与短期经济中断有关，但我们发现，这些中断在严格和宽松的npi城市之间是相似的。npi也没有恶化中期经济结果。我们的研究结果表明，npi可以减少疾病传播，而不会进一步抑制经济活动，这一发现也反映在当代报纸的讨论中。

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Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50 percent and cumulative excess mortality by 24 to 34 percent. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers.

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic History Multiple-

CiteScore

2.80

自引率

4.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Economic History is devoted to the multidisciplinary study of history and economics, and is of interest not only to economic historians but to social and demographic historians, as well as economists in general. The journal has broad coverage, in terms of both methodology and geographic scope. Topics covered include money and banking, trade, manufacturing, technology, transportation, industrial organisation, labour, agriculture, servitude, demography, education, economic growth, and the role of government and regulation. In addition, an extensive book review section keeps readers informed about the latest work in economic history and related fields.