真诚地重新谈判:国际条约修订如何深化合作

Matthew A. Castle
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摘要

国际协议通常被理解为通过限制各国政府违背承诺的能力,帮助它们对未来政策做出可信的承诺。因此,重新谈判协定被视为对合作的威胁,因为重新谈判使过去的承诺受到质疑。但我们对条约重新谈判的频率和性质知之甚少。什么时候重新谈判国际协议?重新谈判对国际合作有什么影响?大多数重新谈判的目的真的是背弃过去的承诺吗?我以贸易体制为主题,收集了有关国际条约修订的新数据,涵盖了自2000年以来签署的310项优惠贸易协定。这些协议中约有四分之一以某种形式进行了修改,绝大多数修改的结果不是缩减了协议,而是加深了承诺。生存分析表明,在联合国大会上拥有共同语言和相似投票模式的“志同道合”国家最有可能修改其承诺。相比之下,我没有找到证据支持PTA修订是对过去承诺的“倒退”。修订对贸易合作的影响支持修订更具合作性的观点。一个误差修正模型显示,修正与出口量的长期增长有关。重新谈判不是国际关系的破裂,而是各国政府重申合作承诺的机会。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Renegotiating in good faith: How international treaty revisions can deepen cooperation

International agreements are often understood to help governments make credible commitments to future policy by limiting their ability to renege on their promises. Renegotiations of agreements are accordingly viewed as a threat to cooperation, since renegotiations call past commitments into question. But we know little about the frequency or nature of treaty renegotiations. When are international agreements renegotiated, and what effect does renegotiation have on international cooperation? Do most renegotiations indeed aim to backtrack on past commitments? Using the topical context of the trade regime, I collect new data on international treaty revisions, covering 310 preferential trade agreements signed since the year 2000. Around a quarter of these agreements have been amended in some form, and the supermajority of amendments result not in scaled back agreements, but in deeper commitments. Survival analysis shows that ‘like-minded’ countries with a shared language and similar voting patterns at the UN General Assembly are most likely to revise their commitments. In contrast, I do not find evidence to support the view of PTA revisions as ‘backsliding’ on past commitments. The effects of revisions on trade cooperation support the more cooperative view of revisions. An error-correction model shows revisions are associated with a long-run increase in export volumes. Renegotiations are not breakdowns in international relations, but opportunities for governments to renew their commitment to cooperation.

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