Gianfranco Alicandro, Alberto Gerli, Claudia Santucci, Stefano Centanni, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Carlo La Vecchia
{"title":"2023年上半年，意大利各年龄层和工作年龄人口的总死亡率不高于预期。","authors":"Gianfranco Alicandro, Alberto Gerli, Claudia Santucci, Stefano Centanni, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Carlo La Vecchia","doi":"10.23749/mdl.v114i5.15275","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Italy experienced a sustained excess in total mortality between March 2020 and December 2022, resulting in approximately 226,000 excess deaths. This study extends the estimate of excess mortality in the country until June 2023, evaluating the persistence of excess mortality.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used mortality and population data from 2011 to 2019 to establish a baseline for expected deaths during the pandemic. Over-dispersed Poisson regression models were employed, stratified by sex, to predict expected deaths. These models included calendar year, age group, and a smoothed function for the day of the year as predictors. Excess mortality was then calculated for all ages and working ages (25-64 years).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From January to June 2023, we found a reduction in the number of deaths compared to the expected ones: 6,933 fewer deaths across all age groups and 1,768 fewer deaths in the working age category. This corresponds to a 2.1% and 5.2% decrease in mortality, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The excess mortality observed in Italy from March to December 2022 was no longer observed in the first six months of 2023.</p>","PeriodicalId":49833,"journal":{"name":"Medicina Del Lavoro","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10627104/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"No Excess Total Mortality in Italy in the First Semester of 2023 at All Ages and in the Working Age Population.\",\"authors\":\"Gianfranco Alicandro, Alberto Gerli, Claudia Santucci, Stefano Centanni, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Carlo La Vecchia\",\"doi\":\"10.23749/mdl.v114i5.15275\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Italy experienced a sustained excess in total mortality between March 2020 and December 2022, resulting in approximately 226,000 excess deaths. This study extends the estimate of excess mortality in the country until June 2023, evaluating the persistence of excess mortality.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used mortality and population data from 2011 to 2019 to establish a baseline for expected deaths during the pandemic. Over-dispersed Poisson regression models were employed, stratified by sex, to predict expected deaths. These models included calendar year, age group, and a smoothed function for the day of the year as predictors. Excess mortality was then calculated for all ages and working ages (25-64 years).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From January to June 2023, we found a reduction in the number of deaths compared to the expected ones: 6,933 fewer deaths across all age groups and 1,768 fewer deaths in the working age category. This corresponds to a 2.1% and 5.2% decrease in mortality, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The excess mortality observed in Italy from March to December 2022 was no longer observed in the first six months of 2023.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49833,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Medicina Del Lavoro\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-10-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10627104/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Medicina Del Lavoro\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.23749/mdl.v114i5.15275\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Medicina Del Lavoro","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.23749/mdl.v114i5.15275","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
No Excess Total Mortality in Italy in the First Semester of 2023 at All Ages and in the Working Age Population.
Background: Italy experienced a sustained excess in total mortality between March 2020 and December 2022, resulting in approximately 226,000 excess deaths. This study extends the estimate of excess mortality in the country until June 2023, evaluating the persistence of excess mortality.
Methods: We used mortality and population data from 2011 to 2019 to establish a baseline for expected deaths during the pandemic. Over-dispersed Poisson regression models were employed, stratified by sex, to predict expected deaths. These models included calendar year, age group, and a smoothed function for the day of the year as predictors. Excess mortality was then calculated for all ages and working ages (25-64 years).
Results: From January to June 2023, we found a reduction in the number of deaths compared to the expected ones: 6,933 fewer deaths across all age groups and 1,768 fewer deaths in the working age category. This corresponds to a 2.1% and 5.2% decrease in mortality, respectively.
Conclusions: The excess mortality observed in Italy from March to December 2022 was no longer observed in the first six months of 2023.
期刊介绍：
La Medicina del Lavoro is a bimonthly magazine founded in 1901 by L. Devoto, and then directed by L. Prieti, E. Vigliani, V. Foà, P.A. Bertazzi (Milan). Now directed by A. Mutti (Parma), the magazine is the official Journal of the Italian Society of Occupational Medicine (SIML), aimed at training and updating all professionals involved in prevention and cure of occupational diseases.
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