Assessing Environmentally Effective Post-COVID Green Recovery Plans for Reducing Social and Economic Inequality

Given the current environmental crisis there have been multiple calls for a green recovery from COVID-19 which address environmental concerns and provide jobs in industries and communities economically damaged by the pandemic. Here, we holistically evaluate a range of recovery scenarios, evaluated on environmental and socio-economic equity metrics. Using a modified version of a Bayesian belief network, we show that economic stimuli across green sectors, including jobs in renewable energy, waste management, retrofitting of buildings, heat-pump installation and public transport can help economic growth, but will have limited environmental benefits. The inclusion of carbon taxes and ending fossil fuel subsidies, alongside investment in nature-based solutions and jobs in ecological conservation, can greatly increase the environmental gains as well as socio-economic equality. Additionally, jobs not associated with green industries, but with low carbon footprints, such as those in social care can further improve social equality with minimal negative environmental effects. However, in these latter scenarios involving taxation and ending fossil fuel subsidies, economic growth is reduced. We suggest a comprehensive green recovery and green new deal are needed, and we should reimagine economies, without the focus on economic growth.