COVID-19媒体报道及其与气候变化指数的关系:四次大流行浪潮的动态连通性分析

Onur Polat , Rim El Khoury , Muneer M. Alshater , Seong-Min Yoon
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引用次数: 4

摘要

本研究探讨了新冠肺炎媒体报道指数(MCI)对五个摩根士丹利资本国际气候变化指数(美国、新兴市场(EMU)、日本、欧洲和亚太地区)的回报率和波动性连通性的影响。样本期为2020年3月11日至2022年1月19日,根据新冠肺炎大流行的四波疫情分为子样本。因此,除了频率相关的连通性网络方法外,我们还使用了时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型。主要发现如下。首先,结果表明,MCI是所有波中冲击的净接收器,并且最高水平的连通性出现在第一波中。有关波动性的调查结果相似,摩根士丹利资本国际气候变化指数中的大多数都是净传递者,这可能表明了疫情的严重性。其次,估计短期、中期和长期回报网络的连通性表明,强期限连通性占主导地位,表明冲击在一周内传播。通过用恐慌指数(PI)代替MCI,我们的结果是稳健的。这些结果对投资者和政策制定者都有启示。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Media coverage of COVID-19 and its relationship with climate change indices: A dynamic connectedness analysis of four pandemic waves

This study explores the impact of the COVID-19 media coverage index (MCI) on the return and volatility connectedness of five MSCI Climate Changes Indices (the USA, Emerging Markets (EMU), Japan, Europe, and the Asia Pacific). The sample period was from 11 March 2020–19 January 2022, divided into sub-samples based on four waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, we use the time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model besides the frequency-dependent connectedness network approach. The key findings are as follows. First, the results demonstrate that the MCI is a net receiver of shocks in all waves, and the highest level of connectedness occurs in the first wave. The findings concerning volatility are similar, with the majority of MSCI Climate Change Indices being net transmitters, potentially indicating the severity of the pandemic. Second, estimating the short-, medium-, and long-term return network connectedness indicates the dominance of strong-term connectedness suggesting the spread of shocks within a week. Our results are robust by replacing MCI with Panic Index (PI). These results have implications for investors and policymakers.

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