控制条件下前瞻性指导的承诺(和风险)

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI:10.1016/j.red.2022.07.002

He Nie , Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup

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引用次数: 5

摘要

我们开发了一个具有控制条件前瞻性指导的模型:央行明确地将未来的政策公告锚定在短期通胀上。尽管该模型以过去的承诺为特征，但我们使用简单的马尔可夫链表示来计算封闭形式的解决方案。这使我们能够分析地表明，控制条件下的前向制导可以摆脱模型的太阳黑子流动性陷阱。同样的道理也适用于价格水平目标制政策，这是一个特例。最后，我们利用这个新框架正式表明，宣布的利率只是达到目的的一种手段:真正重要的是预期通胀。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The promises (and perils) of control-contingent forward guidance

We develop a model with control-contingent forward guidance: the central bank explicitly anchors future policy announcements to short run inflation. Even though the model features past promises, we compute a closed form solution using a simple Markov chain representation. This allows us to show analytically that control-contingent forward guidance can rid the model of sunspot liquidity traps. The same holds for a policy of price level targeting, which emerges as a special case. Finally, we leverage this new framework to formally show that announced interest rates are only a means to an end: what truly matters is expected inflation.

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来源期刊

Review of Economic Dynamics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Review of Economic Dynamics publishes meritorious original contributions to dynamic economics. The scope of the journal is intended to be broad and to reflect the view of the Society for Economic Dynamics that the field of economics is unified by the scientific approach to economics. We will publish contributions in any area of economics provided they meet the highest standards of scientific research.