使用WORLD7模型评估钛的全球供应、回收、使用库存和市场价格

Harald Ulrik Sverdrup , Antoniy Elias Sverdrup
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引用次数: 0

摘要

用WORLD7模型评估了钛的供应、价格、可提取资源和回收利用随时间的变化。预计未来对钛的需求将增加,并对未来的几种情况进行了调查。该模型基于质量平衡,模拟1850年至2023年的流量项和2024年至2200年的未来流量。经文献回顾,可开采的矿产资源估计约为18亿吨钛元素。只有5亿吨钛矿产资源属于高品位,其余都在含量较低或极低的矿石中。我们的发现是,对于所有情况,WORLD7模型模拟表明,短期内(2050年之前)不会出现严重短缺,但从长远来看,2075年之后金属和氧化物供应都会出现短缺问题。如果需求增长超过市场分析师的预期,稀缺性可能会提前几十年发展。该模型对氧化钛和钛金属的需求、提取、供应、回收、损失和社会主要库存的发展进行了估计。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An assessment of the global supply, recycling, stocks in use and market price for titanium using the WORLD7 model

The change in supply, price, extractable resources and recycling with time for titanium was assessed with the WORLD7 model. Demand for titanium is expected to increase in the future, and several future scenarios were investigated. The model is mass balance based and simulates the flow terms past from 1850 to 2023 and the flows in the future from 2024 to 2200. The recoverable mineral resources have been estimated at about 1800 million ton of titanium element after a review of the literature. Only 500 million ton of titanium mineral resources count as high grade, the rest is found in ores with low or very low content. Our findings are that for all scenarios, the WORLD7 model simulations shows that there will be no significant shortages in the short term (before 2050), but in the longer term there will be scarcity issues appearing after 2075 for both metal and oxide supply. If demand increase more than anticipated by market analysts, scarcity may develop decades earlier. The model makes estimates for titanium oxide and titanium metal demand, extraction, supply, recycling, losses and the development of major stocks in society.

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CiteScore
6.60
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