Rapid urbanization and global warming significantly impact tidal dynamics in the Pearl River Estuary, China

Due to the dual impacts of anthropogenic disturbances and climate change, tidal hydrodynamics of estuaries have been intensively investigated for their potential to increase flood risk and devastate coastal habitats and human communities. Climate change leads to rises in sea levels, which can amplify regional tides and increase tidal ranges. This study takes the estuarine area of the Pearl River (PRE), one of the fastest-developed estuaries in China, as an example to explore the effects of land cover changes and sea level rise on tidal dynamics. Annual mean tidal levels were collected at 26 major hydrological stations from five major rivers/waterways. To better understand the temporal changes in tidal levels, we analyzed the trends and periodic patterns through linear regression and Complex Morlet wavelet analyses. For the main Pearl River outlet, where conversion of agricultural land to urban use had been primarily taking place, the tidal level changes were significantly affected by increased built-up areas and decreased cultivated land areas. On the other hand, in the middle to upper reaches of the Xi River and Shunde-Hengmen Waterway, we observed decreased tidal levels with decreases in the agricultural lands. No significant correlations were found between annual mean tidal levels and land cover changes downstream of the main rivers. Instead, the tidal level changes at locations close to the coastline were more related to sea level rise, with an average of 0.002 m per year increase. This study highlighted the importance of human activity and sea level rise impacts on tidal dynamics. A systematic understanding of the tidal changes in the estuary is expected to help enhance mechanisms of estuarine hydrology, which could serve as the basis for improving the management and practice of coastal regions in coping with climate change and estuary protection.