老龄化与日本实际利率:一个劳动力市场渠道

IF 2.6 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101262

Shigeru Fujita , Ippei Fujiwara

{"title":"老龄化与日本实际利率:一个劳动力市场渠道","authors":"Shigeru Fujita , Ippei Fujiwara","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101262","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper explores a causal link between aging of the labor force and the declining trend in the real interest rate in Japan. We develop a search and matching model that features heterogeneous workers with respect to their ages and firm-specific skills. Using the model, we examine the long-run implications of the sharp drop in labor force entry in the 1970s. We show that the changes in the demographic structure induce significant low-frequency movements in per capita consumption growth and thus the real interest rate. The model suggests that aging of the labor force caused the real interest rate to decline by 1 percentage point between 1980 and 2010 in Japan.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101262"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Aging and the real interest rate in Japan: A labor market channel\",\"authors\":\"Shigeru Fujita , Ippei Fujiwara\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101262\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>This paper explores a causal link between aging of the labor force and the declining trend in the real interest rate in Japan. We develop a search and matching model that features heterogeneous workers with respect to their ages and firm-specific skills. Using the model, we examine the long-run implications of the sharp drop in labor force entry in the 1970s. We show that the changes in the demographic structure induce significant low-frequency movements in per capita consumption growth and thus the real interest rate. The model suggests that aging of the labor force caused the real interest rate to decline by 1 percentage point between 1980 and 2010 in Japan.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47082,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies\",\"volume\":\"69 \",\"pages\":\"Article 101262\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0889158323000175\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0889158323000175","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

本文探讨了日本劳动力老龄化与实际利率下降趋势之间的因果关系。我们开发了一个搜索和匹配模型，根据年龄和公司特定技能来区分不同类型的员工。使用该模型，我们考察了20世纪70年代劳动力进入率急剧下降的长期影响。我们发现，人口结构的变化会导致人均消费增长以及实际利率发生显著的低频波动。该模型表明，1980年至2010年间，劳动力老龄化导致日本实际利率下降了1个百分点。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Aging and the real interest rate in Japan: A labor market channel

This paper explores a causal link between aging of the labor force and the declining trend in the real interest rate in Japan. We develop a search and matching model that features heterogeneous workers with respect to their ages and firm-specific skills. Using the model, we examine the long-run implications of the sharp drop in labor force entry in the 1970s. We show that the changes in the demographic structure induce significant low-frequency movements in per capita consumption growth and thus the real interest rate. The model suggests that aging of the labor force caused the real interest rate to decline by 1 percentage point between 1980 and 2010 in Japan.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Multiple-

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

6.90%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of the Japanese and International Economies publishes original reports of research devoted to academic analyses of the Japanese economy and its interdependence on other national economies. The Journal also features articles that present related theoretical, empirical, and comparative analyses with their policy implications. Book reviews are also published.