Enrique Alberola , Gong Cheng , Andrea Consiglio , Stavros A. Zenios
{"title":"日本非常规货币政策与债务可持续性","authors":"Enrique Alberola , Gong Cheng , Andrea Consiglio , Stavros A. Zenios","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101274","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We adapt to the Japanese case a model of stochastic debt sustainability within a monetary policymaking framework. The model incorporates the effects of unconventional monetary policy<span> and its potential unwinding on sovereign debt dynamics. A scenario tree represents stochastic and correlated macroeconomic and fiscal variables, and a coherent risk measure allows to draw probabilistic inferences on sustainability. We calibrate the model to the Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) that Bank of Japan launched in 2013. Using a retrospective analysis, we find a large favourable effect of the QQE on sovereign debt dynamics. Forward-looking simulations under different exit strategies show that the termination and unwinding of the QQE could raise debt sustainability concerns. A sharp tightening of global financial conditions could have a similar negative impact on debt dynamics, requiring a fiscal adjustment to keep debt sustainable.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101274"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Unconventional monetary policy and debt sustainability in Japan\",\"authors\":\"Enrique Alberola , Gong Cheng , Andrea Consiglio , Stavros A. Zenios\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101274\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>We adapt to the Japanese case a model of stochastic debt sustainability within a monetary policymaking framework. The model incorporates the effects of unconventional monetary policy<span> and its potential unwinding on sovereign debt dynamics. A scenario tree represents stochastic and correlated macroeconomic and fiscal variables, and a coherent risk measure allows to draw probabilistic inferences on sustainability. We calibrate the model to the Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) that Bank of Japan launched in 2013. Using a retrospective analysis, we find a large favourable effect of the QQE on sovereign debt dynamics. Forward-looking simulations under different exit strategies show that the termination and unwinding of the QQE could raise debt sustainability concerns. A sharp tightening of global financial conditions could have a similar negative impact on debt dynamics, requiring a fiscal adjustment to keep debt sustainable.</span></p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47082,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies\",\"volume\":\"69 \",\"pages\":\"Article 101274\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0889158323000291\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0889158323000291","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Unconventional monetary policy and debt sustainability in Japan
We adapt to the Japanese case a model of stochastic debt sustainability within a monetary policymaking framework. The model incorporates the effects of unconventional monetary policy and its potential unwinding on sovereign debt dynamics. A scenario tree represents stochastic and correlated macroeconomic and fiscal variables, and a coherent risk measure allows to draw probabilistic inferences on sustainability. We calibrate the model to the Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) that Bank of Japan launched in 2013. Using a retrospective analysis, we find a large favourable effect of the QQE on sovereign debt dynamics. Forward-looking simulations under different exit strategies show that the termination and unwinding of the QQE could raise debt sustainability concerns. A sharp tightening of global financial conditions could have a similar negative impact on debt dynamics, requiring a fiscal adjustment to keep debt sustainable.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of the Japanese and International Economies publishes original reports of research devoted to academic analyses of the Japanese economy and its interdependence on other national economies. The Journal also features articles that present related theoretical, empirical, and comparative analyses with their policy implications. Book reviews are also published.
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