A statistical analysis of tropical salinity and its relationship to SST, highlighting two contrasting areas

Tropical air-sea interactions, near-surface salinity (Ss), and sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations are studied via ocean reanalysis products in the period 1980–2020. The statistical work considers how the net heat and water balance affects mixed layer depth (MLD) and coupling between the upper ocean and atmosphere. Field correlations of Ss – SST exhibit significant negative values in tropical latitudes 10S-15 N, between the semi-permanent marine anticyclones and the equatorial trough. Highlighting contrasts in two areas: the tropical east Atlantic and subtropical southwest Indian Ocean, annual cycles, inter-annual fluctuations of 6 – 8 yr, and long-term downward trends of Ss emerge. The SW Indian Ocean exhibits large swings of net heat and water balance as the monsoon reverses, and steady running-correlations of Ss and SST. The E Atlantic has a subdued annual cycle, and running-correlations are weak and unsteady. In both areas the Ss lags SST by a month. A fresh minus salty composite analysis reveals that the two contrasting areas respond to opposing phases of the Southern Oscillation: E Atlantic (La Nina) and SW Indian (El Nino). Projected long-term trends for increased tropical marine rainfall could be neutralized by declining runoff from continental monsoons. Statistical outcomes infer that a 0.1 ppt reduction of near-surface salinity leads to a 5 m reduction of MLD and a 0.4 C increase of tropical SST, contributing to deeper atmospheric convection. Limitations of the study derive from inferences based on infrequent salinity measurements.