日本人口结构变化、政府债务和财政可持续性:日本央行债券购买的影响

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI:10.1016/j.red.2023.07.007

Gary D. Hansen , Selahattin İmrohoroğlu

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们重新考虑Hansen和Ilmrohoroğlu（2016）报告的日本人口老龄化的财政后果。该论文预测，2021年净债务与国民生产总值的比率将达到250%，而2011年至2019年，实际净债务与国内生产总值的比例大致保持在120%左右。在这里，我们研究了税收增加、支出减少和利率降低所起的作用。最重要的是，我们考虑到日本央行持有的日本政府债券在实现这一时期债务稳定方面发挥的作用。我们得出的结论是，稳定的净债务与产出比率预计是暂时的，在2040年之前将达到250%。

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Demographic change, government debt and fiscal sustainability in Japan: The impact of bond purchases by the Bank of Japan

We reconsider the fiscal consequences of an aging population in Japan that were reported in Hansen and İmrohoroğlu (2016). That paper predicted that the net debt to GNP ratio would reach 250 percent in 2021, while the actual net debt to GNP ratio was roughly constant at about 120% from 2011 to 2019. Here we study the role played by higher tax revenues, lower spending, and lower interest rates than were assumed in the previous paper. Most importantly, we consider the role played by Japanese government bonds held by the Bank of Japan in enabling this period of debt stability. We conclude that the stable net debt to output ratio is predicted to be temporary and reach 250 percent before 2040.

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来源期刊

Review of Economic Dynamics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Review of Economic Dynamics publishes meritorious original contributions to dynamic economics. The scope of the journal is intended to be broad and to reflect the view of the Society for Economic Dynamics that the field of economics is unified by the scientific approach to economics. We will publish contributions in any area of economics provided they meet the highest standards of scientific research.