Firearm availability and police shootings of citizens: a city level analysis of fatal and injurious shootings in California and Florida.

Background: A growing body of research has found a link between firearm availability and police shootings of citizens across place. The problem, however, is that the previous studies on the topic tend to suffer from several limitations: a near exclusive focus on citizen fatalities, units of analysis at the state or county levels, and a variety of proxy measures tapping into community-level firearm access. The current study set out to address these issues by examining the relationship between different forms of firearm availability and both fatal and nonfatal injurious police shootings of citizens at the city level.

Methods: More specifically, it merged The Trace's "Missing Pieces" measures of guns reported lost and stolen to police as well as licensed firearms dealers across jurisdictions from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives as proxies for firearm availability with data on police shootings of citizens in California and Florida from California's URSUS system and the Tampa Bay Times' "Why Cops Shoot" database, respectively. Negative binomial regression analyses were performed on a sample of 253 cities across the two states and a sub-sample of cities with licensed firearms dealers.

Results: Findings uncovered a small positive association between rates of federally licensed guns stores and the number citizens shot by police as well as police shooting incidents while controlling for several community-level measures (e.g., concentrated disadvantage, gun homicide rates). Rates of guns lost or reported stolen were generally not significantly associated with the outcome measures in the multivariate models.

Conclusions: Firearm availability is a significant correlate of police shootings. Pooled counts of both citizens shot by police and police shooting incidents are heightened in jurisdictions with higher rates of licensed gun dealers, which may be due to the fact that all firearms sold in the USA first make their way to the public through these mechanisms. Such licensed gun dealers must be appropriately monitored and audited to reduce illicit behavior and prevent firearms from making their way into secondary markets. Addressing access to firearms can be meaningful for a host of gun-related morbidity and mortality outcomes, including police shootings of citizens.