疫情后木材价格波动及其福利效应的解释

Q3 Business, Management and Accounting

Journal of Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization Pub Date : 2022-11-28 DOI:10.1515/jafio-2022-0018

G. C. van Kooten, Rebecca Zanello, A. Schmitz

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引用次数: 1

摘要

摘要新冠肺炎疫情导致美国软木木材价格空前上涨300%以上。价格上涨归因于疫情引发的国内住房建设繁荣，以及房屋装修，导致木材供应受限和需求增加。然而，新冠肺炎爆发后木材价格的波动仍然无法解释。在本文中，我们使用一个理论模型来解释价格波动的原因。我们研究了为什么在2020年3月至2022年4月期间，尽管需求变化很小，但木材的需求和供应函数可能相当缺乏弹性。这意味着，例如，利率的小幅变动或替代品价格的变化可能导致价格大幅上涨。价格波动损害了消费者，同时使木材生产商受益匪浅。总体而言，由于疫情，美国生产商每季度增加约53亿美元，而美国消费者每季度损失73亿美元。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Explaining Post-Pandemic Lumber Price Volatility and its Welfare Effects

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented increase in the U.S. price of softwood lumber by more than 300%. The price increase has been attributed to constraints on supply and increased demand for lumber caused by a pandemic-induced boom in domestic housing construction and, more so, home improvements. However, the volatility in lumber prices after the COVID-19 outbreak remains unexplained. In this paper, we employ a theoretical model to explain the cause of price volatility. We examine why demand and supply functions for lumber might be quite inelastic over the period from March 2020 to April 2022, despite very small shifts in demand. This implies that slight movements in interest rates or changes in the prices of substitutes, for example, can lead to large jumps in prices. Price volatility harms consumers while greatly benefitting lumber producers. Overall, as a result of the pandemic, U.S. producers gained some $5.3 billion, while U.S. consumers lost $7.3 billion per quarter.

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来源期刊

Journal of Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization Business, Management and Accounting-Business, Management and Accounting (all)

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization (JAFIO) is a unique forum for empirical and theoretical research in industrial organization with a special focus on agricultural and food industries worldwide. As concentration, industrialization, and globalization continue to reshape horizontal and vertical relationships within the food supply chain, agricultural economists are revising both their views of traditional markets as well as their tools of analysis. At the core of this revision are strategic interactions between principals and agents, strategic interdependence between rival firms, and strategic trade policy between competing nations, all in a setting plagued by incomplete and/or imperfect information structures. Add to that biotechnology, electronic commerce, as well as the shift in focus from raw agricultural commodities to branded products, and the conclusion is that a "new" agricultural economics is needed for an increasingly complex "new" agriculture.