Can nationalism and group conflict explain cultural and economic threat perceptions? Cross-sectional and longitudinal evidence from the ISSP (1995–2013)

This article examines how nationalism, together with group conflict factors (namely, immigrant group size and economic conditions), affects ethnic threat perceptions over a period of almost 20 years across European and non-European countries. For this purpose, we analyze three rounds (1995, 2003, and 2013) of the International Social Survey Program (ISSP) National Identity Module using societal growth curve models. Our findings contribute to the ongoing discussion on the contextual drivers and dynamics of threat perceptions in various ways. First, our models show that nationalism is a highly relevant factor in explaining cultural as well as economic threats. However, nationalist attitudes operate purely at the individual level, as no effect of the group-level aggregate of nationalism is found. Second, the growth curve models make it possible to disentangle longitudinal effects (describing how threat perceptions evolve within countries) from cross-sectional patterns (describing the stable differences between countries). The longitudinal effects of group conflict variables deviate from the cross-sectional effects and are mostly insignificant. Given that these longitudinal effects are the litmus test for a causal interpretation, we must conclude that we find little to no evidence for the dynamic claims of group conflict theory. Finally, we detect an interaction between nationalism and labor market conditions: The impact of unemployment rates on threat perceptions is found to be contingent on the nationalist attitudes of individuals.