新冠肺炎后的情况？避免“二十一世纪大危机”

IF 1.7 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI:10.1515/peps-2020-9013

Raul Caruso

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引用次数: 8

摘要

在接下来的几个月里，新冠肺炎疫情有望得到控制。事实上，只要没有疫苗和治疗方法，世界各国政府都在制定与这种冠状病毒共存的计划和战略。社会和经济活动正在谨慎地重新开始，它们将得到实质性的重塑。然而，这场疫情也将演变为一场全球性的大衰退，这场衰退将是普遍的，而且（可能）是持久的。在撰写这篇社论时，一些国际组织已经发布了对正在形成的经济衰退的预测。国际货币基金组织预测，预计2020年全球经济将大幅收缩-3%，但实际情况可能更糟。世贸组织估计贸易损失在13%（乐观的情况）到32%甚至更多（最坏的情况）之间。贸发会议预计，跨国公司的外国直接投资将在

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What Post COVID-19? Avoiding a «Twenty-first Century General Crisis»

In the following months, the COVID-19 pandemic hopefully will be under control. In fact, governments worldwide are elaborating plans and strategies to live with this corona virus as long as there is no vaccine and no treatment. Social and economic activities are re-starting cautiously and they will be re-shaped substantially. However, the pandemic is going to evolve also as a major recession on a global scalewhichwill be pervasive and (presumably) long-lasting. At the time this editorial is written some international organizations have released forecasts on the economic downturn which is taking shape. The IMF has predicted that the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3% in 2020 but the result could be actually even worse. TheWTO has estimated a trade loss between 13% (optimistic scenario) and 32% or even more (worst case scenario). UNCTAD has anticipated that FDI of multinational corporations are to decline between 30 and 40% during

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来源期刊

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy POLITICAL SCIENCE-

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

10.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The journal accepts rigorous, non-technical papers especially in research methods in peace science, but also regular papers dealing with all aspects of the peace science field, from pure abstract theory to practical applied research. As a guide to topics: - Arms Control and International Security - Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Studies - Behavioral Studies - Conflict Analysis and Management - Cooperation, Alliances and Games - Crises and War Studies - Critical Economic Aspects of the Global Crises - Deterrence Theory - Empirical and Historical Studies on the Causes of War - Game, Prospect and Related Theory - Harmony and Conflict - Hierarchy Theory