美联储的产出缺口:实时可靠性测试的不可靠性

IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Josefine Quast, Maik H. Wolters
{"title":"美联储的产出缺口:实时可靠性测试的不可靠性","authors":"Josefine Quast,&nbsp;Maik H. Wolters","doi":"10.1002/jae.3003","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Output gap revisions can be large even after many years. Real-time reliability tests might therefore be sensitive to the choice of the final output gap vintage that the real-time estimates are compared to. This is the case for the Federal Reserve's output gap. When accounting for revisions in response to the global financial crisis in the final output gap, the improvement in real-time reliability since the mid-1990s is much smaller than found by Edge and Rudd (<i>Review of Economics and Statistics, 2016, 98(4), 785–791</i>). The negative bias of real-time estimates from the 1980s has disappeared, but the size of revisions continues to be as large as the output gap itself. We systematically analyse how the real-time reliability assessment is affected through varying the final output gap vintage. We find that the largest changes are caused by output gap revisions after recessions. Economists revise their models in response to such events, leading to economically important revisions for not only the most recent years but also reaching back up to two decades. This might improve the understanding of past business cycle dynamics but decreases the reliability of real-time output gaps ex post.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3003","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Federal Reserve's output gap: The unreliability of real-time reliability tests\",\"authors\":\"Josefine Quast,&nbsp;Maik H. Wolters\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/jae.3003\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Output gap revisions can be large even after many years. Real-time reliability tests might therefore be sensitive to the choice of the final output gap vintage that the real-time estimates are compared to. This is the case for the Federal Reserve's output gap. When accounting for revisions in response to the global financial crisis in the final output gap, the improvement in real-time reliability since the mid-1990s is much smaller than found by Edge and Rudd (<i>Review of Economics and Statistics, 2016, 98(4), 785–791</i>). The negative bias of real-time estimates from the 1980s has disappeared, but the size of revisions continues to be as large as the output gap itself. We systematically analyse how the real-time reliability assessment is affected through varying the final output gap vintage. We find that the largest changes are caused by output gap revisions after recessions. Economists revise their models in response to such events, leading to economically important revisions for not only the most recent years but also reaching back up to two decades. This might improve the understanding of past business cycle dynamics but decreases the reliability of real-time output gaps ex post.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48363,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Applied Econometrics\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-08-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3003\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Applied Econometrics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jae.3003\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jae.3003","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

即使在多年后,产出缺口修正也可能很大。因此,实时可靠性测试可能对与实时估计进行比较的最终产出缺口年份的选择很敏感。美联储的产出缺口就是这样。考虑到应对全球金融危机对最终产出缺口的修订,自20世纪90年代中期以来,实时可靠性的提高远小于Edge和Rudd的发现(《经济与统计评论》,2016,98(4),785-791)。20世纪80年代实时估计的负偏差已经消失,但修正的规模仍然与产出差距本身一样大。我们系统地分析了实时可靠性评估如何通过改变最终产出缺口年份而受到影响。我们发现,最大的变化是由衰退后的产出缺口修正引起的。经济学家为了应对这些事件而修改了他们的模型,不仅在最近几年,而且在20年前都进行了具有重要经济意义的修改。这可能会提高对过去商业周期动态的理解,但会降低事后实时产出缺口的可靠性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

The Federal Reserve's output gap: The unreliability of real-time reliability tests

The Federal Reserve's output gap: The unreliability of real-time reliability tests

Output gap revisions can be large even after many years. Real-time reliability tests might therefore be sensitive to the choice of the final output gap vintage that the real-time estimates are compared to. This is the case for the Federal Reserve's output gap. When accounting for revisions in response to the global financial crisis in the final output gap, the improvement in real-time reliability since the mid-1990s is much smaller than found by Edge and Rudd (Review of Economics and Statistics, 2016, 98(4), 785–791). The negative bias of real-time estimates from the 1980s has disappeared, but the size of revisions continues to be as large as the output gap itself. We systematically analyse how the real-time reliability assessment is affected through varying the final output gap vintage. We find that the largest changes are caused by output gap revisions after recessions. Economists revise their models in response to such events, leading to economically important revisions for not only the most recent years but also reaching back up to two decades. This might improve the understanding of past business cycle dynamics but decreases the reliability of real-time output gaps ex post.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
3.70
自引率
4.80%
发文量
63
期刊介绍: The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信