SWAT based Bi-objective framework for improving the degree of consumer satisfaction in urban water allocation system under streamflow uncertainty

A long-term perspective of climate change patterns leads to the strategic management of limited water resources and consequently achieves the maximum level of social satisfaction between the various sectors in a water allocation system. Therefore, this study first adopts Soil &Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate future climate change patterns [2020–2050 and 2051–2080] under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) scenarios, and then the extracted SWAT output is applied as the initial data in a bi-level programming model in which the manager of the upper level (MUL) tries to maximize the level of social satisfaction between sub-areas while the lower level manager (MLL) focuses on maximization of multi-sectoral social satisfaction. Also, historical data collected from Zayandehrud basin, Iran as a case study are considered for calibration, validation, and subsequently projecting the runoff data for mentioned periods. Based on the output related to the regional hydrological cycle under the [RCP4.5/2020–2080 & RCP8.5/2020–2080] scenarios, the study area is strongly affected by drought and relative temperature increase. Accordingly, due to the shrinkage of water resources in the basin, the highest degree of consumer satisfaction is related to the domestic sector as the smallest recipient of water resources. Thus, with the development of adaptation measures such as the use of demand reduction leverage for the effective use of limited water resources, the challenge of demand dissatisfaction for both the industrial and agricultural sectors is significantly improved.