购买战争却出卖和平？雇佣军与内战后的稳定

IF 2.2 2区社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Security Studies Pub Date : 2022-05-27 DOI:10.1080/09636412.2022.2097890

Corinne Bara, Joakim Kreutz

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要私营军事和安全公司（PMSC）和雇佣军是内战中的一个常见特征，但很少有系统地分析PMSC的参与和冲突动态。本文探讨了PMSC部队在战斗中发生的内乱是否更有可能再次发生。我们认为，PMSC在战斗中的存在加剧了战后可信的承诺问题，因为交战方将担心未来重新部署此类部队的可能性。交战方更加关注最近和更明显的信息，这意味着如果私营军保公司在战斗中和冲突结束时广泛存在，其影响应该最大。对1990–2014年私人安全事件数据库和乌普萨拉冲突数据计划数据的持续时间分析为这些说法提供了有力的支持。我们的研究结果表明，冲突管理应将当地环境之外的方面视为内战复发的风险因素。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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To Buy a War but Sell the Peace? Mercenaries and Post-Civil War Stability

Abstract Private military and security companies (PMSCs) and mercenaries are a common feature in civil wars, yet little systematic analysis of PMSC involvement and conflict dynamics exists. This article explores whether civil conflicts that feature PMSC forces in combat are more likely to recur. We contend that the presence of PMSCs in fighting exacerbates the postwar credible commitment problem, as belligerents will be concerned about the possibility to redeploy such forces in the future. Belligerents pay more attention to more recent and more visible information, meaning that the effects should be greatest if PMSCs feature extensively in combat and at the end of the conflict. A duration analysis of data from the Private Security Events Database and Uppsala Conflict Data Program, 1990–2014, offers robust support for these claims. Our results suggest that conflict management should consider aspects beyond the local context as risk factors for civil war recurrence.

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来源期刊

Security Studies INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

16.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Security Studies publishes innovative scholarly manuscripts that make a significant contribution – whether theoretical, empirical, or both – to our understanding of international security. Studies that do not emphasize the causes and consequences of war or the sources and conditions of peace fall outside the journal’s domain. Security Studies features articles that develop, test, and debate theories of international security – that is, articles that address an important research question, display innovation in research, contribute in a novel way to a body of knowledge, and (as appropriate) demonstrate theoretical development with state-of-the art use of appropriate methodological tools. While we encourage authors to discuss the policy implications of their work, articles that are primarily policy-oriented do not fit the journal’s mission. The journal publishes articles that challenge the conventional wisdom in the area of international security studies. Security Studies includes a wide range of topics ranging from nuclear proliferation and deterrence, civil-military relations, strategic culture, ethnic conflicts and their resolution, epidemics and national security, democracy and foreign-policy decision making, developments in qualitative and multi-method research, and the future of security studies.