Downstream Space Activities in the New Space Era: Paradigm Shift and Evaluation Challenges

New Space refers to the recent opening-up of the space sector to private companies. The liberalization of space activities, which coincides with the digital evolution of the economy, is associated with the rapid expansion of the downstream space segment, i.e., space-related commercial products and services. In this paper, we address the issue of evaluating the size of the downstream space sector in light of New Space characteristics. We describe New Space as a structural transformation of the space sector associated with the entry of private companies and investors, the adoption of new business models, and the reorientation of space agencies towards market-oriented policies. In this specific context, we claim that assessing the economic weight of downstream space activities is of prime interest. Our review of space sector evaluations shows limitations of the existing methodological tools when identifying and evaluating downstream activities. We conclude this work by outlining theoretical issues regarding New Space and the expansion of space-based services markets to be considered for a new evaluation methodology.