Under what circumstances can the forest sector contribute to 2050 climate change mitigation targets? A study from forest ecosystems to landfill methane emissions for the province of Quebec, Canada

Meeting climate change mitigation targets by 2050, as outlined in international pledges, involves determining optimal strategies for forest management, wood supply, the substitution of greenhouse gas-intensive materials and energy sources, and wood product disposal. Our study quantified the cumulative mitigation potential by 2050 of the forest sector in the province of Quebec, Canada, using several alternative strategies and assessed under what circumstances the sector could contribute to the targets. We used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector to project ecosystems emissions and sequestration of seven alternative and one baseline (business-as-usual [BaU]) forest management scenarios over the 2018–2050 period. Three baskets of wood products were used in a Harvested Wood Products model to predict wood product emissions. The mitigation potential was determined by comparing the cumulative CO₂e budget of each alternative scenario to the BaU. The proportion of methane emissions from landfills (RCH₄%) and the required displacement factor (RDF) to achieve mitigation benefits were assessed both independently and jointly. The fastest and most efficient way to improve mitigation outcomes of the forest sector of Quebec is to reduce end-of-life methane emissions from wood products. By reducing methane emissions, the RDF for achieving mitigation benefits through intensification strategies can be reduced from 1.2–2.3 to 0–0.9 tC/tC, thus reaching the current provincial mean DF threshold (0.9). Both a reduction and an increase in the harvested volume have the potential to provide mitigation benefits with adequate RCH₄% and RDF. Increased carbon sequestration in ecosystems, innovations in long-lived wood products, and optimal substitution in markets offer potential avenues for the forest sector to contribute to mitigation benefits but are subject to significant uncertainties. Methane emission reduction at the end of wood product service life is emerging as a valuable approach to enhance mitigation benefits of the forest sector.