{"title":"针对网络攻击的电力需求预测鲁棒回归","authors":"Daniel VandenHeuvel , Jinran Wu , You-Gan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.10.004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Standard methods for forecasting electricity loads are not robust to cyberattacks on electricity demand data, potentially leading to severe consequences such as major economic loss or a system blackout. Methods are required that can handle forecasting under these conditions and detect outliers that would otherwise go unnoticed. The key challenge is to remove as many outliers as possible while maintaining enough clean data to use in the regression. In this paper we investigate robust approaches with data-driven tuning parameters, and in particular present an adaptive trimmed regression method that can better detect outliers and provide improved forecasts. In general, data-driven approaches perform much better than their fixed tuning parameter counterparts. Recommendations for future work are provided.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":14061,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.9000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Robust regression for electricity demand forecasting against cyberattacks\",\"authors\":\"Daniel VandenHeuvel , Jinran Wu , You-Gan Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.10.004\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Standard methods for forecasting electricity loads are not robust to cyberattacks on electricity demand data, potentially leading to severe consequences such as major economic loss or a system blackout. Methods are required that can handle forecasting under these conditions and detect outliers that would otherwise go unnoticed. The key challenge is to remove as many outliers as possible while maintaining enough clean data to use in the regression. In this paper we investigate robust approaches with data-driven tuning parameters, and in particular present an adaptive trimmed regression method that can better detect outliers and provide improved forecasts. In general, data-driven approaches perform much better than their fixed tuning parameter counterparts. Recommendations for future work are provided.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":14061,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Forecasting\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Forecasting\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920702200142X\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Forecasting","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920702200142X","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Robust regression for electricity demand forecasting against cyberattacks
Standard methods for forecasting electricity loads are not robust to cyberattacks on electricity demand data, potentially leading to severe consequences such as major economic loss or a system blackout. Methods are required that can handle forecasting under these conditions and detect outliers that would otherwise go unnoticed. The key challenge is to remove as many outliers as possible while maintaining enough clean data to use in the regression. In this paper we investigate robust approaches with data-driven tuning parameters, and in particular present an adaptive trimmed regression method that can better detect outliers and provide improved forecasts. In general, data-driven approaches perform much better than their fixed tuning parameter counterparts. Recommendations for future work are provided.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Forecasting is a leading journal in its field that publishes high quality refereed papers. It aims to bridge the gap between theory and practice, making forecasting useful and relevant for decision and policy makers. The journal places strong emphasis on empirical studies, evaluation activities, implementation research, and improving the practice of forecasting. It welcomes various points of view and encourages debate to find solutions to field-related problems. The journal is the official publication of the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) and is indexed in Sociological Abstracts, Journal of Economic Literature, Statistical Theory and Method Abstracts, INSPEC, Current Contents, UMI Data Courier, RePEc, Academic Journal Guide, CIS, IAOR, and Social Sciences Citation Index.