制造系统非计划停机序列的自组织临界性及其在重大故障预测中的应用

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2022-12-05 DOI:10.1080/08982112.2022.2150084

Bo Li, Hengchang Liu, Fengjiao Yang, Nan Jiang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要应用自组织临界性理论分析了复杂制造系统的非计划停机时间(USDT)特征。通过Hurst指数值验证了USDT序列的长程相关性。然后，我们利用极值理论建立了频率与USDT持续时间的关系模型。模型参数采用极大似然法估计，当有新数据时采用贝叶斯推理进行更新。最后，通过半导体组装测试厂瓶颈系统的USDT数据验证了所提方法的有效性。

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Self-organized criticality in manufacturing system unscheduled downtime series and its application to major failure prediction

Abstract In this study, self-organized criticality theory was applied to analyze the unscheduled downtime (USDT) characteristic of a complex manufacturing system. The long-range correlation of the USDT series was verified through the Hurst exponent value. Then, we developed a model to depict the relationship between the frequency and USDT duration with the extreme value theory. The parameters of the model were estimated with the maximum likelihood method and updated with Bayesian inference when new data was available. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method was validated by the USDT data of the bottleneck system from a semiconductor assembly and test factory.

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.