巴西股票市场合资企业公告的信息效率

IF 0.1 Q4 MANAGEMENT
Ivan Fernandes da Cruz, Gabriel Augusto de Carvalho, Felipe Dias Paiva, L. M. P. Ribeiro, Uajará Pessoa Araújo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在验证巴西股票市场在合资企业成立时是否存在半强效率。本研究分析的时间段为2012年5月24日至2017年5月24日,样本为12家关于成立新合资企业的公告,其中至少有一家股东是巴西上市公司。随后,采用事件研究方法。利用市场模型估计预期收益,然后计算事件窗口期间的异常收益(AR)和累积异常收益(CAR)。最后,对异常收益的平均值进行统计检验,以验证这些值是否显著。研究结果表明,在整个事件窗口中,ar呈强烈的下降趋势,因此CAR呈强烈的负向,在事件窗口结束时达到-4.17%。这一事实表明,市场认为合资企业的成立是负面的。关于结果的统计显著性,值得注意的是,只有在宣布成立合资企业的前两天,AR是显著的,在其他日子,市场表现有效,AR在统计上与零没有差异。本研究的结果与管理人员评估建立新合资企业的可能性的决策有关,表明该决策可能对其公司股票产生影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Eficiência informacional em anúncios de criação de joint-ventures no mercado acionário brasileiro
This study aimed to verify the presence of semi-strong efficiency in the Brazilian stock market when the creation of joint ventures was announced. The period analyzed in the study was from May 24, 2012 to May 24, 2017, with a sample of 12 announcements about the creation of new joint ventures, in which at least one of the shareholders was a publicly traded Brazilian company. Subsequently, the event study methodology was employed. Expected returns were estimated using the market model, and then abnormal returns (AR) and cumulative abnormal return (CAR) were calculated during the event window. Finally, statistical tests were performed for the average of the abnormal returns in order to verify if the values were significant. The results of the work showed a strong downward trend in the ARs throughout the event window, consequently the CAR was strongly negative, reaching a value of -4.17% at the end of the event window. This fact indicates that the creation of a joint venture was seen as negative by the market. Regarding the statistical significance of the results, it is noteworthy that, only in the two days prior to the announcement of the creation of the joint venture, the AR was significant, in the other days the market behaved efficiently, with the AR not being statistically different from zero. The result of this research is relevant to the decision of managers who evaluate the possibility of establishing a new joint venture, showing the impacts that this decision may have on their company's stocks.
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