欧佩克60周年:有没有欧佩克的世界

IF 1.5 Q2 ECONOMICS
A. Economou, B. Fattouh
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引用次数: 3

摘要

本文提供了1990年至2018年世界石油市场在有欧佩克和没有欧佩克的情况下运作的历史视角。该分析建立在一种新方法的基础上,该方法在世界石油市场最先进的结构VAR模型的丰富背景下模拟反事实(即假设)结果,通过量化欧佩克通过其闲置产能缓冲发挥的平衡作用对石油生产历史演变的影响,实证评估欧佩克对石油市场和全球经济的贡献,石油价格和价格波动,供需弹性和全球福利的共同演变。如果欧佩克自1990年以来一直以最大产能生产,没有剩余产能,也没有发挥任何平衡作用,那么全球石油产量将如何演变,这是一个反事实的情景。该分析还采用了一般均衡方法来确定一个没有欧佩克备用产能的世界对石油出口和石油进口地区的全球福利影响。福利效应是根据全球石油生产模式变化后的地区GDP损益计算的。确定对GDP影响的方法基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)框架,该框架从经济部门和区域相互依存性的角度提供了有关世界经济的高度细节。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
OPEC at 60: the world with and without OPEC
This paper provides a historical perspective from 1990 to 2018 of the functioning of the world oil market with and without OPEC. The analysis builds on a new methodology simulating counterfactual (i.e. what-if) outcomes in the rich context of state-of-the-art structural VAR models of the world oil market to empirically assess OPEC ’ s contribution to oil markets and the global economy by quantifying the impact of OPEC ’ s balancing role via its spare capacity cushion on the historical evolution of oil production, oil prices and price volatility, the joint evolution of the supply and demand elasticities and global welfare. A counterfactual scenario is constructed of how global oil production would have evolved if OPEC had been producing at maximum capacity, held no spare capacity and did not play any balancing role since 1990. The analysis also employs a general equilibrium approach to determine the global welfare implications of a world without OPEC spare capacity across oil-exporting and oil-importing regions. The welfare effects are calculated based on regional GDP gains and losses following changes in oil production patterns globally. The methodology to determine the impact on GDP is based on a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework which offers a high level of detail regarding the world economy in terms of economic sectors and regional interdependencies.
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来源期刊
OPEC Energy Review
OPEC Energy Review ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
4.50%
发文量
34
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