妇女对1993年1月波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那战争停火的控制失败。

IF 0.1 Q3 HISTORY
Vladimir Petrović
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引用次数: 1

摘要

前南斯拉夫问题国际会议是1992年8月在伦敦设立的,作为以赛勒斯·万斯和大卫·欧文勋爵为代表的联合国和欧洲共同体进行谈判的一个工具。直到年底,他们制定了一项解决波斯尼亚冲突的详细建议,称为万斯-欧文和平计划。1993年1月在日内瓦举行的第一届会谈期间,向交战各派领导人提出了和平方案。本文以档案资料、司法记录、公开文件和参与者的回忆录为基础,试图重构这一历经多轮戏剧性谈判的过程。对谈判期间宣布的波斯尼亚、塞尔维亚和克罗地亚的立场以及各代表团之间的相互作用和各代表团内部的关系进行的分析表明,所有各方都深深从事双重交易。克罗地亚一方似乎准备签署《自愿退出协议》,但同时在实地发动冲突,破坏了该协议。塞尔维亚方面也在升级,波斯尼亚塞族领导人不准备接受该计划,尽管他们从贝尔格莱德收到了建议。萨拉热窝一直在拖延,希望在克林顿新政府就职后,美国能直接介入这场危机。奥巴马政府确实破坏了该计划,损害了国际谈判代表的信誉。在这种情况下,这个计划成功的可能性很小。尽管停火将使波斯尼亚战争缩短近三年,并使人员伤亡至少减少一半,但主要谈判代表发现妥协解决方案是不可接受的。当他们定义和宣传最大化目标时,接受妥协既损害了他们对权力的控制,也违背了他们的世界观。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
NEUSPEH ŽENEVSKIH PREGOVORA O PREKIDU RATA U BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI JANUARA 1993.
The International Conference on the Former Yugoslavia was created in London in August of 1992 as an instrument for the negotiations conducted by the United Nations and the European Community, represented by Cyrus Vance and Lord David Owen. Until the end of the year, they developed a detailed proposal to settle the Bosnian conflict, known as the Vance-Owen Peace Plan (VOPP). The VOPP was presented to the leaders of the warring factions in Geneva during the first session of talks in January of 1993. On the basis of archive material, judicial records, published documents, and memoirs of the participants, this article aims to reconstruct the dramatic negotiation process, which consisted of several rounds. An analysis of the declared Bosnian, Serbian, and Croatian positions during the negotiations, as well as the interactions among the delegations and relations within them, reveals that all the parties were had been deeply engaged in double dealing. The Croatian side was seemingly ready to sign the VOPP but was undermining it by launching a conflict in the field at the same time. The Serbian side was escalating as well, the Bosnian Serb leaders were not ready to accept the plan, despite the suggestions they had received from Belgrade. Sarajevo was procrastinating, hoping for a direct US involvement in the crisis following the inauguration of the new Clinton Administration. That administration did undermine the plan, which damaged the credibility of the international negotiators. In such circumstances, the plan had slim chances of succeeding. Although a ceasefire would have shortened the Bosnian war by almost three years and cut human losses by at least half, the main negotiators found a compromise solution to be unacceptable. As they defined and propagated maximalist goals, acceptance of a compromise was both damaging their grip on power and defying their worldview.
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来源期刊
Istorija 20. veka
Istorija 20. veka Arts and Humanities-History
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