拉伸-思维循环:一种场景规划的新技术
IF 1.9
Q3 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
引用次数: 3
摘要
在危机管理中，情景规划在我们这个动荡、不确定、复杂和模糊的世界中是必要的。即使在最不确定的条件下，战略规划者也需要能够想象未来的环境。潜在情景和相关管理的规模表明，相关人员将需要创新的规划技术。为了支持战略规划中的创新，我们结合了对创造力、发散性思维和创造性约束的研究，设计了一种称为“拉伸思维循环”的方法。该技术使用迭代思维方法来识别广泛的场景、可能的后果和潜在的约束，然后使用这些信息来识别新的机会和创新，以支持场景规划。我们报告了这项技术在危机管理背景下的发展，以及它在与澳大利亚州政府的合作项目中的应用，该项目探索了一系列新冠肺炎疫情后12个月的复苏情景。拟议的延伸思维循环不仅限于危机管理，而且为所有组织提供了一种结构化的方法，以增强其为未来情景规划进行发散思维的能力。本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。
Stretch‐Thinking Loops: A New Technique for Scenario Planning
In crisis management, scenario planning is a necessity in our volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world. Strategic planners need to be able to imagine future environments even in the most uncertain conditions. The scale of potential scenarios and associated management suggests that those involved will require innovative planning techniques. To support innovation in strategic planning, we have combined the research on creativity, divergent thinking, and creative constraints to design a method called “Stretch‐Thinking Loops.” This technique uses iterative thinking approaches that identify broad scenarios, the likely consequences, and the potential constraints, and then uses this information to identify new opportunities and innovations to support scenario planning. We report on the development of this technique in the context of crisis management and its application in a collaborative project with an Australian State Government that explored a series of post‐COVID‐19 recovery scenarios for a 12‐month time horizon. The proposed Stretch‐Thinking Loops are not just limited to crisis management but offer all organizations a structured method to enhance their capability to engage in divergent‐thinking for future scenario planning.
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来源期刊
Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION-
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
8.60%
发文量
20
期刊介绍：
Scholarship on risk, hazards, and crises (emergencies, disasters, or public policy/organizational crises) has developed into mature and distinct fields of inquiry. Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy (RHCPP) addresses the governance implications of the important questions raised for the respective fields. The relationships between risk, hazards, and crisis raise fundamental questions with broad social science and policy implications. During unstable situations of acute or chronic danger and substantial uncertainty (i.e. a crisis), important and deeply rooted societal institutions, norms, and values come into play. The purpose of RHCPP is to provide a forum for research and commentary that examines societies’ understanding of and measures to address risk,hazards, and crises, how public policies do and should address these concerns, and to what effect. The journal is explicitly designed to encourage a broad range of perspectives by integrating work from a variety of disciplines. The journal will look at social science theory and policy design across the spectrum of risks and crises — including natural and technological hazards, public health crises, terrorism, and societal and environmental disasters. Papers will analyze the ways societies deal with both unpredictable and predictable events as public policy questions, which include topics such as crisis governance, loss and liability, emergency response, agenda setting, and the social and cultural contexts in which hazards, risks and crises are perceived and defined. Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy invites dialogue and is open to new approaches. We seek scholarly work that combines academic quality with practical relevance. We especially welcome authors writing on the governance of risk and crises to submit their manuscripts.
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