John A. Knaff , Charles R. Sampson , Matthew E. Kucas , Christopher J. Slocum , Michael J. Brennan , Thomas Meissner , Lucrezia Ricciardulli , Alexis Mouche , Nicolas Reul , Mary Morris , Galina Chirokova , Philippe Caroff
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引用次数: 27
摘要
本文从业务预报的角度综述了热带气旋地面风的估算。首先,我们提供了业务预测中心实践和历史数据库的总结。接下来,我们讨论了当前和新兴的TC地面风的客观估计,包括算法,存档数据集,以及应用于实际TC地面风预测参数的单个算法的优缺点。我们的审查导致了对所需表面覆盖的建议-以内核2公里分辨率覆盖距离TC中心至少1100公里的区域,频率至少为每6小时一次。这足以支持从中心到34-kt (17 m s - 1)风的范围的完整分析。我们还建议未来设计TC地面风力发电能力,包括提供资金,以确保向运营商提供接近实时的数据,以便在拟议预算范围内进行操作评估和使用。最后,我们建议存档的操作风半径数据集的用户与操作组织联系,以确保这些数据集适合他们的需求,因为数据集的质量随时间和空间而变化,甚至来自单个组织。
Estimating tropical cyclone surface winds: Current status, emerging technologies, historical evolution, and a look to the future
This article provides a review of tropical cyclone (TC) surface wind estimation from an operational forecasting perspective. First, we provide a summary of operational forecast center practices and historical databases. Next, we discuss current and emerging objective estimates of TC surface winds, including algorithms, archive datasets, and individual algorithm strengths and weaknesses as applied to operational TC surface wind forecast parameters. Our review leads to recommendations about required surface coverage – an area covering at least 1100 km from center of TC at a 2-km resolution in the inner-core, and at a frequency of at least once every 6 h. This is enough coverage to support a complete analysis of the TC surface wind field from center to the extent of the 34-kt (17 m s−1) winds at 6-h intervals. We also suggest future designs of TC surface wind capabilities include funding to ensure near real-time data delivery to operators so that operational evaluation and use are feasible within proposed budgets. Finally, we suggest that users of archived operational wind radii datasets contact operational organizations to ensure these datasets are appropriate for their needs as the datasets vary in quality through time and space, even from a single organisation.
期刊介绍:
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review is an international journal focusing on tropical cyclone monitoring, forecasting, and research as well as associated hydrological effects and disaster risk reduction. This journal is edited and published by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (TC) and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorology Administration (STI/CMA). Contributions from all tropical cyclone basins are welcome.
Scope of the journal includes:
• Reviews of tropical cyclones exhibiting unusual characteristics or behavior or resulting in disastrous impacts on Typhoon Committee Members and other regional WMO bodies
• Advances in applied and basic tropical cyclone research or technology to improve tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings
• Basic theoretical studies of tropical cyclones
• Event reports, compelling images, and topic review reports of tropical cyclones
• Impacts, risk assessments, and risk management techniques related to tropical cyclones