经济政策不确定性、银行竞争与金融稳定

IF 1.3 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Financial Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-02-02 DOI:10.1108/jfep-04-2022-0106

Tigist Abebe Desalegn, Hongquan Zhu, Dinkneh Gebre Borojo

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引用次数: 1

摘要

目的探讨经济政策不确定性和银行竞争对中国银行业金融稳定性的影响。这项研究回答了两个基本问题。第一，经济政策不确定性是否影响中国银行的金融稳定性?第二，竞争是否影响中国银行业的金融稳定?设计/方法/方法样本包括所有商业银行，以提供中国银行业的全貌。这项研究涵盖了2011年至2019年的时间。采样周期捕获不同的EPU峰值和关键策略变化。本研究采用了广义矩量法、固定效应和普通最小二乘估计模型等不同的计量经济学方法。此外，本研究使用工具变量模型来解决内生性、自相关性和未观察到的异质性问题。此外，还采用了替代性的EPU和金融稳定措施。此外，本研究在剔除五大国有银行后对模型进行了重新估计。研究发现EPU和竞争都会降低金融稳定性。这意味着EPU对金融稳定有负面影响。这表明，不确定性扭曲了资源配置效率，造成混乱，导致银行业的金融不稳定。此外，本研究发现竞争对金融稳定有负面影响。这一结果表明，激烈的竞争促使银行从事风险更高的活动，最终导致金融不稳定加剧。原创性/价值本研究首次探讨了EPU和竞争对中国银行业金融稳定性的影响。本研究进行了工具变量模型、替代测量方法和样本构建方法等稳健性检验。这项研究为银行业带来了政策启示和经验教训。

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Economic policy uncertainty, bank competition and financial stability

Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty and bank competition on the financial stability of the Chinese banking industry. This study answers two fundamental questions. First, does economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects the financial stability of banks in China? Second, does competition affect the financial stability of the Chinese banking sector? Design/methodology/approach The sample includes all commercial banks to provide a full picture of the Chinese banking sector. This study covers the time between 2011 and 2019. The sample period captures different EPU spikes and key policy changes. This study used different econometric methodologies such as the generalized method of moments and the fixed effect and ordinary least square estimation models. Furthermore, this study used the Instrumental Variable model to solve endogeneity, autocorrelation and unobserved heterogeneity concerns. Besides, alternative EPU and financial stability measures were used. Moreover, this study reestimates the model after dropping the big five state-owned banks. Findings This study found that both EPU and competition reduce financial stability. This implies that EPU has a negative impact on financial stability. This shows that uncertainty distorts resource allocation efficiency and creates confusion, leading to financial instability in the banking sector. Besides, this study found that competition negatively affects financial stability. This result implies that high competition pushes banks toward riskier activities that ultimately lead to increased financial instability. Originality/value This study is the first of its kind that examines the impact of EPU and competition on the financial stability of the Chinese banking sector. This study conducted several robustness tests such as the instrumental variable model, alternative measurement and sample construction methods. This study brings policy implications and lessons for the banking sector.

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来源期刊

Journal of Financial Economic Policy ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.80

自引率

8.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Financial Economic Policy publishes high quality peer reviewed research on financial economic policy issues. The journal is devoted to the advancement of the understanding of the entire spectrum of financial policy and control issues and their interactions to economic phenomena. Economic and financial phenomena involve complex trade-offs and linkages between various types of risk factors and variables of interest to policy makers and market participants alike. Market participants such as economic policy makers, regulators, banking and competition supervisors, corporations and financial institutions, require timely and robust answers to the contemporary and emerging policy questions. In turn, such answers require thorough input by the academics, policy makers and practitioners alike. The Journal of Financial Economic Policy provides the forum to satisfy this need. The journal publishes and invites concise papers to enable a prompt response to current and emerging policy affairs.