Explaining Uncertainty Avoidance in Megaprojects: Resource Constraints, Strategic Behaviour, or Institutions?

ABSTRACT This paper asks why uncertainties are avoided in dominant megaproject practice while planning scholars are increasingly advocating adaptive planning and uncertainty acknowledgement. We propose a novel analytical framework to explain uncertainty avoidance, consisting of two current explanations – resource constraint and strategic behaviour models – and a complementary institutional model. We apply the framework to a seaport megaproject in Flanders to test its validity. Results show that the institutional model increases our understanding of uncertainty avoidance. More attention to planning institutions and far-reaching institutional changes are required to facilitate a move towards uncertainty acknowledgement and adaptive planning.