投资滞后:土耳其案例的实证分析

IF 3 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY
Evaluation Review Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Epub Date: 2023-05-13 DOI:10.1177/0193841X231174754
Koray Yıldırım, Neşe Algan, Harun Bal
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2008年世界金融危机后,有一种观点认为,经济复苏力度不够。在这种背景下,关于滞后,特别是投资滞后的争论在过去十年中有所增加。本研究的目的是分析土耳其经济中的投资滞后和滞后的基本动态。结构断裂试验用于识别迟滞。传统的和非对称的因果关系检验被用来确定迟滞的基本动力学。利用投资、GDP、利率、生产率等变量分析投资滞后。结构断裂检验应用于变量,而传统和不对称因果关系检验应用于投资及其决定因素之间。结构断裂试验证明了迟滞的存在。根据格兰杰因果检验,利率、GDP、生产率与投资之间不存在因果关系。利率对投资没有影响的事实证明了滞后性。根据非对称因果检验,利率与投资之间不存在关系。GDP和投资之间呈反比关系。生产率和投资之间存在不对称关系。生产率冲击对投资产生不对称影响的事实使生产率冲击成为滞后的主要动力。此外,大量证据表明,全要素生产率的强滞后和高不确定性加剧了投资滞后。因此,在制定政策时应考虑到生产率冲击的滞后性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Investment Hysteresis: An Empirical Essay Turkish Case.

After the 2008 World Crisis, there is a view that the economic recovery has not been adequate. In this context, the debate on hysteresis and especially investment hysteresis has increased in the last decade. The aim of this study is to analyze the investment hysteresis and the basic dynamics of hysteresis in the Turkish economy. Structural break tests are used to identify hysteresis. Traditional and asymmetric causality tests are used to identify the fundamental dynamics of hysteresis. Investment, GDP, interest rate, and productivity variables are used to analyze investment hysteresis. Structural break tests were applied to the variables, while conventional and asymmetric causality tests were applied between investments and their determinants. Structural break tests prove the existence of hysteresis. According to the Granger causality test, there is no causality from interest rates, GDP and productivity to investments. The fact that interest rates have no effect on investments proves hysteresis. According to the asymmetric causality test, there is no relationship between interest rates and investments. There is an inverse relationship between GDP and investments. There is an asymmetric relationship between productivity and investments. The fact that productivity shocks cause asymmetric effects on investments makes productivity shocks the main dynamic of hysteresis. In addition, there is considerable evidence that the strong hysteresis and high uncertainty of TFP exacerbate investment hysteresis. Therefore, productivity shocks should be taken into account in policymaking for hysteresis.

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来源期刊
Evaluation Review
Evaluation Review SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
11.10%
发文量
80
期刊介绍: Evaluation Review is the forum for researchers, planners, and policy makers engaged in the development, implementation, and utilization of studies aimed at the betterment of the human condition. The Editors invite submission of papers reporting the findings of evaluation studies in such fields as child development, health, education, income security, manpower, mental health, criminal justice, and the physical and social environments. In addition, Evaluation Review will contain articles on methodological developments, discussions of the state of the art, and commentaries on issues related to the application of research results. Special features will include periodic review essays, "research briefs", and "craft reports".
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