管理可持续性日益复杂的挑战

Q4 Environmental Science
Aniko Klausmann-Dinya
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引用次数: 1

摘要

到目前为止,我们的社会和经济运作模式在21世纪已经过时。一些诺贝尔经济学奖获得者明确表示,我们必须忘记目前主导全球经济的范式:“让我们尽可能地将利益私有化,并将其成本社会化!”其结果是不平等现象极其迅速地加剧,随之而来的是难以控制的社会经济-环境紧张局势。似乎只有在全球和较低级别(国家、地区、地方)进行彻底的社会和经济变革,我们才能摆脱这种局面。没有其他解决方案,只有相互平行的社会和经济范式交换。相互连接而非分离。但许多重大挑战也来自自然和技术环境,它们植根于人类制造的系统。因此,我们共同面临着人类历史上迅速变化的复杂性和未知的情况。我们没有适当的方法和经验来应对这些新型挑战,但除了管理它们,别无选择。尽管存在这一事实,但在可持续性风险不断增加的时代,关于这一迅速增长的问题的原因和后果的研究却很少。同样,关于如何在社会和经济组织的不同(全球、宏观和微观)层面上管理这些问题,几乎没有实际信息可以提供可操作的建议。我们将复杂性定义为系统中组件的数量加上这些组件之间关系的多样性加上组件和关系的变化速度。更大的系统(如社会-经济-生态系统)通常非常复杂,但如果它们的行为不可预测,它们可能会更复杂。根据全球数据库和报告,我们调查了各国在管理可持续发展目标实施领域日益复杂的情况方面的准备情况。我们发现,在大多数国家(以及全球范围内),专家们都在选择最简单的方式——他们分别处理目标,而没有考虑到非常复杂的相互联系和反馈回路系统。我们试图为未来总结一些结论,即什么是处理复杂性的更好方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Managing challenges of increasing complexity in sustainability
The paradigm under which our society and economy have operated until now has become obsolete in the 21st century. Some Nobel Prize-winner economists made it clear that we have to forget the paradigm currently dominating the global economy: "Let’s privatize the benefits and socialize (distribute) its costs as much as possible!" The results of it are extremely and rapidly increasing inequalities, followed by unmanageable socio-economic - environmental tensions. It seems we could get out of this situation only with radical social and economic transformations, both globally and at the lower levels (countries, regions, localities). There isn’t another solution just the social and economic paradigm exchange parallel with each other. Interconnected and not separated them. But many big challenges are coming up from the natural and the technological environment too and they are rooted in the human-made systems. So altogether we are facing the quickly changing complexity and an unknown situation in the history of humanity. We don't have appropriate methods and experiences how to deal with these new types of challenges but there isn't any other choice just to manage them. Despite this fact, there are very few studies about the causes and consequences of this rapidly growing problem in the era of growing sustainability risks. Similarly, there is very little practical information that provides actionable advice on how to manage these problems at different (global-, macro-, and micro-) levels of social and economic organizations. We define complexity as the number of components in a system plus the variety of relationships among these components plus the speed of changes of both the components and the relationships. Larger systems (like social - economic - ecological systems) are often very complex – but they may be more complicated if their behavior is unpredictable. Based on the global databases and reports we investigated the trials of countries how prepared they are for managing the growing complexity in the field of implementing the Sustainable Development Goals. We have found that in most of the countries (and globally too) experts are choosing the simplest way - they deal with the goals separately from each other and don't take into account the very complicated system of their interconnections and the feedback loops. We have tried to summarize some conclusions for the future about what would be the better approach to deal with the complexity.
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来源期刊
Ecocycles
Ecocycles Environmental Science-General Environmental Science
CiteScore
1.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
13
审稿时长
4 weeks
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