1906年9月18日经过香港的小型台风及其风暴潮对香港的影响的历史再分析

IF 2.4 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Hing Yim Mok , Chi Ming Shun , Stephen Davies , Wing Hong Lui , Dick Shum Lau , Kai Chun Cheung , Kwan Yin Kong , Sai Tick Chan
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引用次数: 1

摘要

1906年9月18日,一场台风(“台风1906”)突然意外地经过香港,并在短短数小时内对维多利亚港及其周边地区造成灾难性影响。由于1906年是中国农历的“炳武”年,因此台风在历史上也被称为“炳武台风”。造成了巨大的生命和财产损失,航运和渔业社区遭到破坏。这场灾难性的台风至今仍有两个未解之谜:1)为何香港天文台未能提供任何预警?2)一些当代记录中报道的风暴潮是否完全可信?本文将重点讨论这两个问题。本文重新分析了各种历史文献记录的天气观测资料,并利用热带气旋模式估计了台风1906可能的风暴大小、强度和路径。在重新分析的基础上,利用风暴潮和波浪模式估计香港的风暴潮、风暴潮和浪高。结果显示,台风1906在过境香港时为小型台风,最大风半径为11公里或以下。因此,在没有船舶、气象卫星、雷达等实时观测的情况下,从技术上讲不可能发出预警。我们亦估计香港的最大风暴潮(风暴潮)在维多利亚港和吐露港分别不高于0.82米(2.43 mCD)和1.98米(4.15 mCD)。这些数字受到台风强度和风暴大小的限制。因此,我们得出结论,以前记录的风暴潮数据不支持本研究。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A historical re-analysis of the calamitous midget typhoon passing through Hong Kong on 18 September 1906 and its storm surge impact to Hong Kong

A typhoon passed through Hong Kong suddenly and unexpectedly on 18 September 1906 (the “Typhoon 1906”) and had a disastrous impact on Victoria Harbour and its surroundings in just a couple of hours. Since the year 1906 was the “Bingwu” year in the Chinese calendar, the typhoon is also known historically as the “Bingwu Typhoon”. Tremendous loss of lives and property resulted, and the shipping and fishing communities were devastated. Two mysteries arising from this calamitous typhoon have existed to date: 1) Why the Hong Kong Observatory was not able to provide any forewarning? 2) whether the storm surge reported in some contemporary records is entirely credible? This paper will focus on both of these.

In this paper, we re-analyse historical weather observations recorded in various historical documents and estimate the possible storm size, intensity and track of Typhoon 1906 using tropical cyclone models. Based on the re-analyses, the storm surges, storm tides and wave heights in Hong Kong are also estimated using storm surge and wave models. The results reveal that Typhoon 1906 was a midget typhoon, with a radius of maximum winds of 11 km or smaller, during its passage through Hong Kong. This explains why it was technically impossible for a forewarning to be given at that time when real-time weather observations from ships, meteorological satellites and radars were non-existent. We also estimate that the maximum storm surges (storm tides) in Hong Kong were not higher than 0.82 m (2.43 mCD) and 1.98 m (4.15 mCD) in Victoria Harbour and Tolo Harbour respectively. These figures are found to be limited by the intensity and the storm size of the typhoon. Therefore, we conclude that the previously documented storm surge figures are not supported by the present study.

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来源期刊
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
3.40%
发文量
184
审稿时长
30 weeks
期刊介绍: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review is an international journal focusing on tropical cyclone monitoring, forecasting, and research as well as associated hydrological effects and disaster risk reduction. This journal is edited and published by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (TC) and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorology Administration (STI/CMA). Contributions from all tropical cyclone basins are welcome. Scope of the journal includes: • Reviews of tropical cyclones exhibiting unusual characteristics or behavior or resulting in disastrous impacts on Typhoon Committee Members and other regional WMO bodies • Advances in applied and basic tropical cyclone research or technology to improve tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings • Basic theoretical studies of tropical cyclones • Event reports, compelling images, and topic review reports of tropical cyclones • Impacts, risk assessments, and risk management techniques related to tropical cyclones
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